Important Information

NTEM 6.2 Data Release

Version 6.2 of the NTEM data set has now replaced NTEM 5.4 as the definitive version, and NTEM 6.1 has been removed from the website. Users should ensure that they use NTEM 6.2 datasets marked with the date 110411 or later as earlier versions contained an error in the Planning Data.

This latest version has been updated with:

• Population updated using ONS 2008-based projections;
• Dwellings updated using Local Authority Annual Monitoring Reports;
• Employment forecasts updated consistent with more recent GDP forecasts from the Office of Budget Responsibility. The forecasting method has also been slightly revised. The distribution of Employment and Workers by Region in the base year 2001 (and hence in all years), has been updated using Workforce Jobs and the Labour Force Survey;
• An update to the Car Purchasing Cost Index in the Car Ownership Model in line with more recent RPI data.

A Technical Note describing the dataset will be released in due course.

Users should note that:

• NTEM datasets are long-term forecasts. They represent the Department's best estimate of the long-term response to demographic and economic trends;
• NTEM forecasts are run for 2001 and at 5 year intervals to 2041. For intermediate years, the forecasts are interpolated linearly. This means that the forecasts for 2008 and 2009 may not fully reflect the effect of the economic downturn, although the 2011 data will take the downturn into account;
• The employment forecasts have been reviewed and the forecasting method updated. The new forecasts are consistent with HM Treasury growth at a national level. This does not have a large impact on total tripends across Great Britain, but it does have a significant impact on trip ends by purpose and may impact trip ends by spatial area.

For those TEMPRO users that use the NTM traffic growth forecasts, it is also expected that an updated version of the National Transport Model (NTM) data will be issued in the near future.

It is recommended that the NTEM 6.2 dataset should be used with the latest version of the software (TEMPRO 6.2).

NTM 2009 Forecasts Available in TEMPRO

TEMPRO users who use NTM growth factors to estimate traffic growth should use the most up-to-date available version, currently NTM 2009. The NTM datasets are not covered by the orderly release process as they are not usually used for Business Cases, but users should quote both the NTEM and NTM versions that they use to calculate TEMPRO factors and note that the NTM datasets may change from time to time. For further details please see the following link:

National Transport Model Forecasts 2009M

Rename of TEMPRO datasets to NTEM

In order to avoid confusion between different version numbers for the TEMPRO data and software, the TEMPRO datasets were renamed "NTEM" in January 2010.

The TEMPRO name will be continue to be used for the software only. So, for example, currently TEMPRO 6.2 (the software) should be used with NTEM 6.2 (the data set).

In the long term, we hope that this change will help users to distinguish between data and software updates.

TEMPRO v6.2 Software Release

We have now released version 6.2 of the TEMPRO software. This supersedes the previous version of the software (v6.1) and we recommend that TEMPRO users start using it with immediate effect.

This latest software has a number of revisions and new features compared with the previous TEMPRO v6.1 software:

• The Alternative Assumptions Origin/Destination calculation has been revised from TEMPRO v6.1 software. The calculation that converts from Production/Attraction to Origin/Destination when applying Alternative Assumptions is now consistent with that used to create Origin/Destination data in the standard datasets. It is important to note that this change will give different results;
• The NTM Growth Factor calculation has been updated to allow for the user to select between different versions of NTM forecasts (which are updated every year). Also, if the NTM calculation is used in Production/Attraction mode, there is now a warning message to users to remind them that the WebTAG guidance (Unit 3.15.2 Section 5.5) requires the use of Origin/Destination data;
• Following user requests, the TEMPRO v6.2 software has a facility which allows the location of workspace files, the NTM dataset and TEMPRO regional datasets to be changed to folders other than the default (e.g. on a network drive). This functionality is only available to users with administrative privileges;
• The performance of the software has been improved in a number of areas.

A user guide entitled 'Getting Started with TEMPRO (Version 6.2)' has also been made available.

NTEM data release schedule

As part of the NATA Refresh programme, the Department has reviewed its release schedule of transport analysis guidance on WebTAG, as well as the release of software and data sets.

The release of the NTEM data sets does not immediately invalidate the previous version. Modelling and appraisal work that make use of previous versions will remain valid until the updated data set becomes definitive. For this reason, both new-release and previous sets are available for download on this web site. However, since the new data set contains more recent data sources, the use of this data set in new work is encouraged. It may also be of use to undertake sensitivity tests in existing models that use previous NTEM data.

The definitive NTEM dataset will be updated once each year, usually on 1 April. Prior to becoming definitive, it will be IN DRAFT for at least 3 months. No further releases of NTEM during this lead period will be definitive until the next release the following year.

It should be noted that it is important for the Department to keep the NTEM data sets robust and as accurate as possible, necessitating the release of further 'draft' data sets from time to time.