Project: Development of an Aggregate Transport Forcasting Model (ATFM)

Reference: H129

Last update: 18/11/2003 11:54:34


The aim of this project is to provide the DETR with a better understanding of the determinants of long term travel growth when compared against relationships within the National Transport Model (NTM) now being developed. The key objective was to develop a series of well documented transport forecasting models.


This project was designed to show the advantages of using aggregate relationships for long term forecasts of road traffic growth when compared with the NTM and to provide DfT with a better understanding of the appropriate level of aggregation. The research should begin in early May 2001 and should be completed within 21 months of the start date.


University College, London
Centre for Transport Studies , Gower Street , London, WC1E 6BT
020 7679 7009

Contract details

Cost to the Department: £79,400.00

Actual start date: 01 June 2002

Actual completion date: 31 October 2002


Development of an Aggregated Transport Forecasting Model
Author: Joyce Dargay Phil Goodwin & Mark Hanly
Publication date: 27/09/2002
Source: DfT Website
More information:

Summary of results

  1. The research has provided a useful model of aggregate transport demand, which is statistically sound. However the use of ' prior values' (evidence taken from other studies) has produced a model where it is difficult to assess the statistical properties of any forecasts produced. This is one of the key planned outputs.
  2. The results of the study will be used as a foundation for continuing (internal) work to develop aggregate models. This work will attempt to replace the prior values used in the report with directly estimated statistical values. The internal project will then continue to look at issues identified by the project, including the appropriate level of disaggregation.