Reference: STP 19/5/10
Last update: 02/09/2009 17:17:20
Two main objectives are set for this project:
a) To test the visioning and backcasting methodologies as a means to assess challenging new environmental targets for UK transport policy;
b) To produce a set of images of the future that represent different alternative visions for the year 2030, and to determine alternative policy packages that it would be necessary to introduce to achieve those images, together with the policy paths that highlight when change has to take place.
This project will examine the possibilities of reducing transport emissions by 80 per cent in 2030 through a modified backcasting scenario building approach. It will examine a range of policy measures (i.e. pricing, regulation and technological), and assess how they can be effectively combined to achieve this level of emissions reduction. The intention will be assess whether such an ambitious target is feasible, identify the main problems (including the transition costs), and the main decision points over the 26 year time horizon.
There are three main elements in this innovative research project. The first is to set targets for 2030 and to forecast the business as usual situation for all forms of transport in the UK over that period, so that the scale of change can be assessed in terms of achieving the emissions reductions. The second is the description of the transport system in 2030 that will meet the reduction target. This will take the form of two alternative visions of the future that will push the technological and the pricing/regulatory options, separately and in combination. The third stage is the backcasting process, where alternative policy packages are assembled to lead to the image of the future, together with their sequencing in terms of when implementation should take place.
The benefits of scenario building are that innovative packages of policy measures can be developed to address emissions reduction targets. It allows trend breaking analysis, by highlighting the policy and planning choices to be made by identifying those key stakeholders that should be included in the process, and by making an assessment of the main decision points that have to be made (the step changes). It also provides a longer term background against which more detailed analysis can take place.
University College London
The Bartlett School of Planning, 22 Gordon Street, London, WC1H 0QB
020 7679 7456
Cost to the Department: £50,000.00
Actual start date: 01 October 2004
Actual completion date: 24 November 2005
Looking over the horizon - Executive Summary
Author: Robin Hickman and David Banister
Publication date: 27/01/2006
Source: Bartlett School of Planning, University College London
More information: http://www.ucl.ac.uk/~ucft696/documents/Executive_summary_Jan_2006_HR.pdf