The Department for Transport is placing into public domain the evidence base of analysis provided to the Eddington Study as background for the strategic assessment of returns to transport investment. This represents just one of a number of sources considered by the Eddington Study. Other sources are referenced in the main study report.
The analysis was based on almost 170 detailed appraisals for a range of interventions including road and public transport schemes in a variety of locations across the UK. In addition, further modelling of almost 20 interventions, using more detailed local models, was undertaken(1).
For each scheme we report the New Approach to Appraisal Benefit to Cost Ratio (NATA BCR) from the Department's view and (where applicable) the Value for Money category. In a few cases the Department has taken a more cautious view than scheme promoters on the NATA BCR, particularly where it was confident about the Value for Money category. Value for Money is a more complete measure of the returns to investment and includes an assessment of environmental and social impacts. The assessment - specifically non-monetised impacts - is challenging. The best available evidence is used, but there may be uncertainties which cannot be conveyed in a single category. As such results must be interpreted with some caution.
This evidence represents the data available to the Eddington Study as of May 2006. The scheme appraisals were carried out at different stages in the approval process - either at Programme Entry or later approval stages. A number of schemes in the list were not approved for Programme Entry and are not being progressed. The Eddington Study has not generally sought to undertake Value for Money assessments of schemes which have not already been assessed during the course of Departmental business.
A number of additional schemes were identified during the course of the Eddington Study (See 'External Sources below). It should be noted that some of these have not been fully developed and the costs and risks in particular have not been assessed to the level of confidence seen in other transport projects. As such these BCRs should be interpreted as only illustrative of the potential returns.
This evidence has been used to provide a strategic analysis of the potential returns from different types of intervention such that the Eddington Study has focused on identifying long-term priorities (post-2015). Neither this evidence base nor analysis attempts to represent the views of either DfT or Sir Rod Eddington regarding current decisions or specific priorities. Value for Money is only one of a range of factors ministers must consider when taking decisions, others include:
We have not published information relating to one scheme which has subsequently been considered for the first round of the Productivity Transport Innovation Fund As announced on Monday 18th December the Department will be working with promoters to develop these schemes. It would be inappropriate to publish this information in advance of these discussions and a final decision.
| Scheme Name |
NATA BCR New Approach to Appraisal, Benefit to Cost Ratio |
Value for Money Category |
| A1 Peterborough to Blyth GSJ | 20.5 | High |
| A1 Willowburn to Denwick Improvement | 4.1 | Not assessed |
| A1(M) Ferrybridge - Hook Moor | 3.7 | Not assessed |
| A1(M) Wetherby - Walshford | 4.2 | Not assessed |
| A10 Wadesmill - Colliers End | 4.5 | Not assessed |
| A1033 Hedon Road Improvement | 2.2 | Not assessed |
| A11 Attleborough Bypass Improvement | 3.0 | Not assessed |
| A11 Fiveways to Thetford Improvement | 5.6 | Not assessed |
| A120 Stansted to Braintree Improvement | 2.0 | Not assessed |
| A14 Ellington to Fen Ditton Improvement | 12.3 | Not assessed |
| A14 Haughley New Street - Stowmarket Improvement (Q2 2000) | 2.8 | Not assessed |
| A160/A180 Improvement Feasibility Study | 7.2 | Not assessed |
| A160 Improvements | 6.1 | Not assessed |
| A180 Interchange | 3.5 | Not assessed |
| A180 Widening | 13.0 | Not assessed |
| A2 Bean to Cobham Phase 1 | 1.5 | Not assessed |
| A2 Pepperhill to Cobham Widening | 2.5 | High |
| A2/A282 Dartford Improvement Scheme | 2.0 | High |
| A21 Flimwell to Robertsbridge - HA preferred route | 2.1 | High |
| A21 Kippings Cross to Lamberhurst Bypass | 2.7 | Not assessed |
| A21 Lamberhurst Bypass | 4.2 | Not assessed |
| A21 Tonbridge to Pembury | 11.1 | Not assessed |
| A23 Handcross to Warninglid Improvement | 6.1 | High |
| A249 Iwade to Queenborough Improvement | 2.1 | Not assessed |
| A27 Polegate Bypass | 2.8 | Not assessed |
| A27 Southerham to Beddingham Improvement | 7.5 | High |
| A3 Hindhead | 3.1 | High |
| A30 Bodmin to Indian Queens | 5.5 | High |
| A30 Carland Cross to Chiverton Cross | 3.8 | Not assessed |
| A30 Temple to Higher Carblake | 2.1 | Not assessed |
| A30/A382 Merrymeet Junction | 5.7 | High |
| A303/A358 - A303/A30 Option | 2.3 | Poor |
| A303/A358 - A358 Option | 2.8 | High |
| A34 Chieveley/M4 J13 Improvement | 3.8 | Not assessed |
| A38 Derby Junction | 5.2 | High |
| A41 Aston Clinton Bypass | 3.0 | Not assessed |
| A419 Commonhead Junction | 5.7 | Not assessed |
| A421 Great Barford Bypass | 7.9 | High |
| A428 Caxton Common to Hardwick Improvement | 4.1 | High |
| A43 M40 - B4031 Dualling | 3.5 | Not assessed |
| A43 Silvertsone Bypass | 4.5 | Not assessed |
| A43 Whitfield Turn - Brackley Hatch Improvement | 2.8 | Not assessed |
| A453 Widening M1 J24 to A52 | 7.8 | Not assessed |
| A46 Newark to Lincoln Improvement | 2.6 | Not assessed |
| A46 Newark to Widmerpool Improvement | 14.7 | High |
| A47 Blofield to North Burlingham | 9.6 | Not assessed |
| A5 M1 Link Road (Southern Route Strategic) | 6.5 | Not assessed |
| A5 Nesscliffe Bypass | 2.4 | Not assessed |
| A500 Basford, Hough, Shavington Bypass | 1.7 | Not assessed |
| A500 City Road & Stoke Junction Improvement | 2.1 | Not assessed |
| A55/A483 | 11.2 | High |
| A590 High and Low Newton | 3.6 | Low |
| A595 Parton to Lillyhall | 4.2 | High |
| A6 Alvaston | 3.5 | Not assessed |
| A6 Clapham Bypass | 2.0 | Not assessed |
| A6 Great Glen Bypass | 2.0 | Not assessed |
| A6 Rothwell - Desborough Bypass | 3.2 | Not assessed |
| A6 Rushden Higham Ferrers Bypass | 9.5 | Not assessed |
| A63 Castle Street Improvement - Cut and Cover Tunnel Option | 1.7 | Not assessed |
| A63 Melton Grade Separated Junction (Q2 2000) | 3.9 | Not assessed |
| A63 Selby Bypass | 4.8 | Not assessed |
| A64 Colton Lane GSJ | 1.0 | Not assessed |
| A650 Bingley Relief Road | 2.3 | Not assessed |
| A66 Long Newton Grade Separated Junction | 2.0 | High |
| A66 Stainburn & Great Clifton Bypass | 3.6 | Not assessed |
| A66 Temple Soverby Bypass and Improvements at Winderwath | 2.3 | High |
| Access to Port of Liverpool Improvement (new route from M57/M58 to Seaforth Docks) | 3.0 | Not assessed |
| M1 J10 to 13 widening | 2.9 | Not assessed |
| M1 J19 Improvement | 2.9 | High |
| M1 J6A to 10 Widening | 3.5 | High |
| M1 widening junctions 30 to 42 Northbound Collector Distributor | 2.0 | High |
| M20 J 10A | 5.9 | Not assessed |
| M25 J1b - 3 Widening | 6.5 | Not assessed |
| M25 J28/A12 Brook St Improvement | 7.2 | High |
| M25 Jct12-15 Widening | 2.3 | Not assessed |
| M25 Rapid Widening DBFO section 1 | 5.5 | Not assessed |
| M25 Rapid Widening DBFO section 2 | 4.6 | Not assessed |
| M25 Rapid Widening DBFO section 4 | 2.4 | Not assessed |
| M25 Rapid Widening DBFO section 5 | 2.2 | Not assessed |
| M27 J11-12 Climbing Lane | 2.6 | High |
| M27 J3-4 Widening | 7.1 | High |
| M4 Junction 18 | 3.4 | High |
| M40 Junction 15 Longbridge Bypass | 5.8 | Not assessed |
| M40/A404 Handy Cross Junction Improvement | 4.9 | Not assessed |
| M5 Hallen Hill | 3.7 | High |
| M5 Jct 19-20 N/B Climbing Lane (Tickenham Hill) | 4.1 | High |
| M5 Jct 19-20 S/B Climbing Lane (Naish Hill) | 9.3 | High |
| M6 Carlisle to Guards Mill | N/A(2) | High |
| M60 Jct 5-8 Widening | 3.8 | Not assessed |
| M62 Route 2 Junction 25 to 28 | 4.7 | High |
(1) See Atkins 2006
and MVA 2006.
(2) This scheme has
negative net cost to government which means the BCR is
misleading.
| Scheme Name |
NATA BCR New Approach to Appraisal, Benefit to Cost Ratio |
Value for Money Category |
| A1073 Spalding to Eye Improvement Scheme | 5.4 | High |
| A13/A138 Sadler's Farm Junction | 11.3 | High |
| A167 Chilton Bypass | 5.9 | High |
| A228 Leybourne and West Malling Bypass | 4.0 | High |
| A31 Hickley's corner underpass | 2.3 | High |
| A35 Codford to Heytesbury Improvement | 1.5 | Poor |
| A36 Wylye Valley Relief Road, Salisbury area | 3.0 | Low |
| A41 Expressway/A4031 All Saint Way Junction Improvement | 3.0 | High |
| A4146 Stoke Hammond | 4.2 | High |
| A429 Barford Bypass | 3.9 | High |
| A507 Ridgmont Bypass | 4.3 | High |
| A58 Blackbrook Diversion | 3.0 | High |
| A631 West Bawtry Improvements | 8.5 | High |
| Barnstaple Western Bypass | 5.6 | High |
| Beverley Integrated Transport Plan | 1.9 | Medium |
| Bexhill Hastings Link Road | 3.1 | High |
| Brierley Hill Sustainable Access scheme | 5.6 | High |
| Burgh Le Marsh Bypass | 3.3 | High |
| Burnt Tree Junction Improvement | 2.7 | High |
| Carlisle Nortthern Development Route | 8.6 | High |
| DETC | 4.4 | High |
| Earl Shilton Bypass | 5.6 | High |
| East Kent Access Phase 2 | 4.1 | High |
| East Leeds Link Road | 2.9 | High |
| Edge Lane West | 3.2 | High |
| Greater Manchester Urban Traffic Control | 5.2 | High |
| M4 J11 Mereoak (Reading)(3) | 7.7 | High |
| Owen Street Level Crossing Relief Road, Tipton | 1.5 | Medium |
| Pegswood Bypass | 5.0 | High |
| Pleasley Bypass Extension | 3.3 | High |
| Rotherwas Access Road | 1.0 | Poor |
| Scarborough Integrated Transport Scheme(4) | 2.7 | High |
| Selly Oak New Road Major Scheme | 2.8 | High |
| SEMMMS New Relief Road Scheme | 5.7 | High |
| Sheffield Northern Inner Relief Road phases 2 and 3 | 2.9 | High |
| Sittingbourne Northern Relief Road | 5.8 | High |
| South Lowestoft Relief Road | 2.8 | High |
| Southend Major Scheme | 2.2 | Medium |
| Taunton Third Way and Northern Inner Distribution Road | 5.2 | High |
| Tunstall Northern Bypass | 3.5 | High |
| W2EMMS(5) | 4.5 | High |
| Waverley Link Road | 6.2 | High |
| West Midlands Urban Traffic Control | 4.3 | High |
(3) Also includes public
transport elements.
(4) Also includes public
transport elements.
(5) Multi-Modal Strategy
Package – includes a number of different schemes, including
HA roads.
| Scheme Name |
NATA BCR New Approach to Appraisal Benefit to Cost Ratio |
Value for Money Category |
| Altrincham Interchange, Greater Manchester | 1.0 | Medium |
| Bletchley Link 2 Public Transport Scheme | 3.1 | High |
| Bradford Interchange | 1.0 | Low |
| Cambridge Guided Bus | 2.0 | Not assessed |
| Coleshill Multi Model Interchange | 4.8 | High |
| Coventry Rapid - Preferred scheme | 1.9 | High |
| Doncaster QBC | 1.7 | Medium |
| Greater Bristol Bus Network | 3.2 | High |
| Haxby Station | 3.0 | High |
| Leeds Supertram | 2.3 | High |
| Mansfield Interchange | 4.4 | High |
| Newcastle - Eldon Square Concourse | 1.2 | Low |
| North West Taunton Package | 1.8 | Medium |
| Nottingham Express Transit Extension | 2.0 | High |
| South Hampshire Rapid Transit | 3.6 | High |
| SPARK Leamington Spa and Warwick Integrated public transport Improvement | 2.8 | High |
| Surrey Pegasus, Guildford Area | 1.4 | Low |
| Warrington Interchange | 2.0 | High |
| Wolverhampton Town Access and Interchange | 2.2 | High |
| MyBus, West Yorkshire | 4.0 | High |
| Scheme Name |
NATA BCR New Approach to Appraisal Benefit to Cost Ratio |
Value for Money Category |
| Crossrail Hybrid Scheme | 1.6 to 2.6(6) | Not assessed |
| Thameslink Upgrade | 2.1 to 3.0(6) | Not assessed |
| Scheme Name | Type of Scheme |
NATA BCR New Approach to Appraisal Benefit to Cost Ratio |
Value for Money Category |
| A228 Main Road to Ropers Lane | Local Road | 2.4 | Not assessed |
| A66 Tees Valley gateway Study | Local Road | 3.2 | Not assessed |
| Canal Towpath | Walking/Cycling | 24.5 | Not assessed |
| DLR London City Airport | Light Rail | 1.7 | Not assessed |
| DLR Woolwich Extension | Light Rail | 1.1 | Not assessed |
| Glasgow Airport Rail System | Rail | 1.1 | Not assessed |
| Heysham to M6 Link | Local Road | 7.4 | Not assessed |
| High Speed Line London-Glasgow | Rail | 1.9 | Not assessed |
| High Speed Line London-Manchester | Rail | 1.9 | Not assessed |
| High Speed Line London-West Midlands | Rail | 1.9 | Not assessed |
| Improved Walking and Cycling Facilities (Sustainable Development Commission) | Walking/Cycling | 2.6 | Not assessed |
| Jubilee Line Extension | Light Rail | 1.7 | Not assessed |
| Stansted Surface Access | HA | 11.7 | Not assessed |
| TFL Rail Vision | Rail | 2.5 | Not assessed |
(6) The higher BCR includes wider economic benefits, such as agglomeration.
| Scheme Name | Type of Scheme |
NATA BCR New Approach to Appraisal Benefit to Cost Ratio |
| ECML 2a (Additional inter-peak services to 5tph between Leeds and London) | Rail | 1.3 |
| ECML 2b (Additional WAGN Peak commuter capacity) | Rail | 2.2 |
| HP-Leeds to Sheffield Highway Improvements | HA | 1.3 |
| HQ-Leeds Urban Area Highway Improvements | Local Road | 3.6 |
| HR-Leeds Urban Area Major Public Transport Investment | Public Transport | 2.7 |
| HU-Intra Leeds Bus Fare Reduction (30%) and Frequency Increase (20%) | Public Transport | 2.6 |
| HV-Leeds to Bradford Improved Highway Connections | Local Road | 2.8 |
| HW-Leeds to Bradford Public Transport Improvements | Public Transport | 4.0 |
| IF-West Yorkshire County Bus Fares Reduction (30%) and Frequency Increase (20%) | Public Transport | 3.0 |
| IJ-South and West Yorkshire County Bus Fares Reduction (60%) and Frequency Increase (20%) | Public Transport | 2.7 |
| IB-HP+HU (Leeds to Sheffield Highway Improvements + Leeds Urban Area Bus Fares and Frequency Enhancements) | Public Transport | 1.8 |
| IH-South Yorkshire County Bus Fares Reduction (30%) and Frequency Increase (20%) | Public Transport | 3.2 |
| II-HP+HV+IF+IH (South and West Yorkshire County Bus Fares Reduction (30%) and Frequency Increase (20%), Leeds to Sheffield and Leeds to Bradford Highway Improvements) | Public Transport | 2.6 |
| M6 Active Traffic Management | HA | 1.8 |
| MML Time Savings (Time savings distributed along MML between Mill Hill and Sheffield) | Rail | 11.0 |