Vehicle excise duty evasion: 2007

The National Statistics publication on evasion of Vehicle Excise Duty for Great Britain in 2007 contains the following key points:

Methodological improvements and comparisons with previous survey results

• Substantial improvements in the way that the roadside survey data are collected mean that evasion estimates for 2007 are not directly comparable with those from previous years. 
• The vast majority of data in the 2007 survey were collected through Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) technology. This enabled the data collected through the survey to be quality assured in great detail.  
• Analyses of this year's survey data also suggest that misread registration marks do not have a neutral effect on estimates as previously thought and, instead, tend to inflate estimates of evasion. More details regarding the effect and treatment of misreads are provided in Appendix C of the bulletin.
• Detailed checking has removed this inflationary effect from the 2007 estimates. However, the absence of sufficient ANPR data mean that it is not possible to remove this effect from previous survey results. As a result, the 2007 estimates should be considered as the first point in a new statistical series and should not be compared with previous years.

Revenue lost from unlicensed vehicles

• It is estimated that vehicle excise duty evasion could cost around £79 million in lost revenue in the year 2007/08.
• This is equivalent to about 1.5 per cent of the total revenue that could be raised in that year.
• Some of the revenue will be recovered through DVLA enforcement activity or through vehicle keepers back-licensing their vehicles.

Rate of unlicensed vehicles in traffic

• The overall rate of unlicensed vehicles in traffic was estimated to be 1.1 per cent in 2007. In Northern Ireland, it was estimated to be 2.3 per cent. 
• Evasion rates in Great Britain traffic were estimated to be highest amongst motorcycles (6.5 per cent) and the other vehicles category (2.5 per cent).
• Rates were also highest on minor urban roads and lowest on motorways.

Rate of unlicensed vehicles in active stock

• The overall rate of unlicensed vehicles in stock in Great Britain was estimated to be 1.7 per cent, equivalent to approximately 589 thousand vehicles. This estimate is higher than the 'in-traffic' evasion rate, as unlicensed vehicles travel, on average, less miles than licensed vehicles and are therefore less likely to be observed on the road.
• As with in-traffic evasion, the rate for motorcycles and other vehicles was estimated to be highest at 9.8 per cent and 5.2 per cent respectively.

Characteristics of unlicensed vehicles

• 18 per cent of unlicensed motorcycles were observed whilst declared SORN (Statutory Off Road Notification). The equivalent figure for unlicensed private and light goods vehicles was 5 per cent.
• In addition, 58 per cent of unlicensed motorcycles observed in the survey had been unlicensed for at least a year. The average figure across all tax classes was 14 per cent.
• 64 per cent of unlicensed vehicles were over 5 years old, compared to 58 per cent of all licensed vehicles.
• The owner details were not known for 12 per cent of unlicensed vehicles seen in the survey. Amongst all licensed vehicles, details of ownership are known in 98 per cent of cases.

Notes

1. The survey involved contractors recording registration marks of vehicles at 256 road sites across the United Kingdom. In total, around 1.7 million valid sightings of registration marks were collected. These were then checked against the computer record of licensed status to determine the levels of traffic observed without a valid licence. Information on traffic levels was then used to weight together the results from the different sites to estimate the proportion of vehicle miles driven by evading vehicles.

2. The pattern of repeat sightings of vehicles in the survey is used to estimate the relative mileage of licensed and unlicensed vehicles. These estimates showed that vehicles that are not correctly licensed travel, on average, less miles than properly licensed vehicles. Those estimates in turn are used to estimate evasion amongst all vehicles and the revenue loss.

Publication Details

Published on 14 February 2008 by Transport Statistics.

Available by telephone order on +44 (0)20 7944 3077

Email vehicles.stats@dft.gsi.gov.uk for queries concerning this bulletin.

For information about release of this product see National Statistics Online.