Low Carbon Transport Innovation Strategy

The need for a Low Carbon Transport Innovation Strategy

Transport, energy & carbon emissions

2.1 Effective transport systems are an important part of our lives and essential to the health of the UK economy.  Our objective in Government is that people and goods can be transported quickly, safely and with as little impact on the environment as possible.  The recent Eddington Transport study, published in December of last year, highlighted the importance of an efficient transport infrastructure in sustaining the UK's productivity and competitiveness ^[2] . 

2.2 However transport is a major energy user and currently the large majority of our transportation needs are met by a fossil fuel, oil. The combustion of oil gives rise to emissions of carbon dioxide, the greenhouse gas responsible for the majority of human induced climate change.

2.3 In 2005, the latest year for which figures are available, carbon dioxide emissions from the domestic transport sector in the UK were 35.2 MtC  - approximately 23% of total UK carbon emissions - when calculated on a by source basis ^[3] . This is below the average for OECD countries reflecting the UK's high population density, urbanisation and an extensive public transport network ^[4] . The pie chart below shows the breakdown of emissions by the major transport modes on this basis ^[5] .

2.4 However these figures are an understatement of total carbon emissions from the UK transport sector as they exclude emissions from international aviation and shipping. There is no international agreement through the Kyoto Protocol on how to assign emissions between countries for international aviation and shipping. Including figures based on sales of aviation and marine fuels for international journeys departing from the UK gives a higher figure for total transport carbon emissions of 46.3MtC in 2005 – approximately 28% of total UK carbon emissions (including international emissions). A breakdown of the major emissions on this basis is shown in the pie cart below:

2.5 Even these figures are likely to be an understatement of the full climate impact of UK related transportation. As noted in section 5, while the scientific evidence remains complex, there are strong grounds for considering that the full climate impact of aviation emissions at high altitudes is greater than that attributable to carbon dioxide emissions alone. Additionally, as discussed in more detail in section 7, rough estimates of UK carbon emissions from international shipping based on the UK’s share of global GDP or international trade would suggest figures around 3-4 MtC  higher than those based on sales of marine fuels in the UK – reflecting the fact that the UK is not a major refuelling hub for international cargo ships. In summary, carbon emissions from transport represent a significant proportion of total UK carbon emissions which, depending upon the method of calculation, are between around a quarter and a third of total UK emissions.

2.6 Carbon emissions from transport are also rising – over the last decade transport has been the fastest growing source of carbon emissions, both in the UK and many other countries. This reflects the impact of increased personal mobility and a growing economy on the demand for goods and services. While forward projections, which are inevitably uncertain, suggest that carbon emissions from domestic transport may begin to plateau out in the following decades, if emissions from international aviation and shipping are included then the overall trend on a business as usual basis remains upwards.

2.7 The Government has not set individual carbon reduction targets for different sectors of the economy – as we consider that emissions reduction efforts should be first focussed on the areas in which they are most cost effective. Nonetheless transport policies in the Government's existing climate change programme are expected to deliver around 6.8MtC of savings in 2010 compared to a business as usual scenario. The Stern Review suggested that in the short term many transport abatement policies may not be cost-effective, but that action is nevertheless required to contain emissions and to bring forward technologies which can deliver more cost-effective carbon reduction in the future ^[6] .  

2.8 In the longer run, if lower carbon technologies can be effectively commercialised and their costs reduced, modelling analysis suggests that in a carbon constrained world by 2050 it may be cost effective for domestic transport to abate carbon emissions by around 40-60% relative to 1990 though the least-cost emissions trajectory may be somewhat later than for other sectors, as the graph below shows. This is based on scenario modelling using the MARKAL-MACRO model and is not a forecast of emissions trajectories for transport or other sectors.

Source: DTI MARKAL-MACRO modelling for the Energy White Paper

2.9 There are a wide range of technologies which have the potential to reduce the carbon impacts of transportation. Many of these are already being developed within competitive private sector transport markets. However, many are still at the development or demonstration phase. Some are commercially available but have not achieved significant market penetration. Accelerating the development and deployment of these technologies will play a very important role in reducing the carbon impacts of transport over time.

Scope of the strategy

2.10 The Low Carbon Transport Innovation Strategy considers, for each major transportation mode, the potential of new lower carbon transport technologies to deliver carbon reductions over time. For each mode it examines the current state of technology development and the innovation framework supporting technology development, with a particular focus on research, development and demonstration activities (R,D&D). It sets out the existing policies that the Government has put in place to incentivise carbon reduction and support relevant R,D&D, as well as new measures that will be developed over the coming years.

2.11 The strategy is therefore technology focussed - reflecting the important role that we expect new technology will play in this area. That said, it is important to stress that the strategy is not a reappraisal of all the Government’s policies bearing on the climate impacts of transport. For example, while it is not the focus of this document, the Government fully recognises that carbon reduction in the transport sector can also be achieved in a variety of other ways which include:

• encouraging modal shift to lower carbon forms of transport
• encouraging zero carbon options such as walking & cycling
• changed behaviour (eg greater use of car sharing)
• reducing the need to travel – eg through telecommuting

The Government has put in place a substantial programme to promote changes towards more sustainable patterns of travel behaviour. These include encouragement for cycling and walking, workplace, school and personalised travel planning, travel awareness campaigns and marketing, car clubs, car sharing and measures to reduce the need to travel such as video-conferencing. Further detail on these measures is contained in the transport chapter of the Energy White Paper ^[7] .

2.12 Additionally, the Government also recognises the important role public transport has to play in reducing emissions from transport and is putting record amounts of investment into public transport to give people a real alternative to using their car. As a result, the UK now has the fastest growing railway in Europe and the highest number of rail passengers in 40 years. The government also recently published proposals for a modernised national framework for bus services. Re-energising bus use is important for giving people choice and enabling them to make lower-carbon transport choices. Local and central Government are spending over £2.5 billion a year to provide bus services, up from £1bn in 1996/97.

2.13 Much can be achieved from such approaches but it is clear that new technology will need to play a very important role if large reductions in carbon emissions from transport are to be achieved over the longer term. The Government's aim is that lower carbon transport technologies will be deployed in the UK – and that the UK will benefit from the growing global market for these technologies over the coming decades.

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