Forecasting older driver accidents and casualties (No.23)
Table of contents
- Executive Summary
- Introduction
- The prediction method
- Results
- SECTION 1
- Introduction
- SECTION 2
- The prediction method
- 2.1 THE METHOD IN OUTLINE
- (I) Predicting the Number of Drivers
- (II) Predicting the Number of Accident Involvements
- (III) Predicting the Number of Casualties
- 2.2 PREDICTING THE PROPORTION OF DRIVERS
- SECTION 3
- Data sources and initial processing
- 3.1 INTRODUCTION
- 3.2 THE DATA
- Population Data
- Numbers of Currently Licensed Vehicles (DVLA)
- The Proportion of Licensed and Active Drivers
(NATIONAL TRAVEL SURVEY) - 3.3 INITIAL DATA PROCESSING
- SECTION 4
- Predicting the proportion oflicensed drivers
- 4.1 General approach
- 4.2 Estimating P Max
- 4.3 Giving up driving
- 4.4 Defining the logistic prediction curve
- SECTION 5
- Accidents and mileage
- 5.1 The basic data
- 5.2 A model of annual mileage
- 5.3 Modelling basic accident liability
(driver age and sex known) - 5.4 Modelling accident liability with mileage effects
- SECTION 6
- Casualties
- 6.1 Introduction
- 6.2 Casualty patterns by age group
- 6.3 Casualties per accident
- SECTION 7
- Accident and casualty predictions
- 7.1 The form of the predictions
- 7.2 A summary of the predictions
- 7.3 THE RELIABILITY OF THE PREDICTIONS
- 7.3.1 Statistical Accuracy
- 7.3.2 Other Considerations
- 7.4 IMPROVING THE PREDICTIONS
- SECTION 8
- References
- APPENDIX
- Forecasting Older Driver Accidents and Casualties (Adobe Acrobat 300kb)
