Birmingham and West Midlands Rail Capacity Review
25th July 2006
1. Background
1.1 In January 2006 the Department for Transport (DfT) confirmed the need for a review of rail capacity requirements in Birmingham and the West Midlands. A rail industry team led by Network Rail, comprising Central Trains, Centro, DfT and Virgin Trains has undertaken this work and support its findings. The capacity review was remitted to:
- Examine long-term 1 rail capacity requirements in the West Midlands, including as part of total transport strategy for the region
- Confirm the compatibility of rail capacity requirements with proposals for the re-development of Birmingham New Street station (BNS).
1.2 Demand for rail has increased significantly in recent years. Parts of the regional network have experienced a 50% increase in passenger numbers since 2001, with a further 50% growth forecast by 2026 2 . Against this background, the study examined the ability of the railway to accommodate even higher levels of growth as part of a longer-term review of rail capacity.
2. Capacity for Regional and Suburban Services
2.1 Significant growth of 120% on regional/suburban services by 2040 can be accommodated on the regional network and at BNS via train lengthening combined with planned signalling improvements to allow reduction in train headway and a simplification of the current train timetable.
2.2 Use of train lengthening to enhance capacity is consistent with the West Midlands RPA and RUS 3 . The results of recent passenger counts have been assessed at peak periods, and a notional timetable developed, demonstrating that it is possible to operate and platform all services with longer trains, including at BNS, recognising that there is extremely limited scope for introducing additional services, particularly at peak times. Typically, three-car units would be lengthened to six-car, and ultimately to nine-car units. This would provide capacity for 120% growth at existing performance levels and is forecast to last until around 2040, depending on the rate of growth experienced.
2.3 No increase in train loading levels are required to achieve this growth, either for DfT or Centro standards. Future train capacity is assumed to be equivalent to existing rolling stock, except as required to meet modern standards where a reduction in capacity is assumed for trains brought in to replace older rolling stock.
2.4 A very limited number of services may exceed loading standards even with longer trains. This could be readily resolved bearing in mind BNS currently caters for over 1,350 trains per day. Opportunities to improve train capability or performance characteristics could be considered if required to address network capacity and performance issues associated with operating longer trains. 'Peak-spreading' measures, which could also improve capacity, have not been assessed and could be employed to help reduce the amount of travel concentrated in peak periods.
2.5 Not all stations on lines into BNS have platforms that are currently capable of accommodating longer trains. To ensure that these stations would continue to be served, they would require either platform lengthening or an appropriate solution adopted, including a selective door opening regime. In some cases infrastructure work may be required.
2.6 No major infrastructure work is considered necessary to deal with this demand though additional depot space may be required to accommodate longer trains required in future. In the event that additional track capacity is considered necessary, there are a number of practicable measures that could deliver additional capacity 4 . More significant measures such as four-tracking radial routes could also be considered though costs for these may be prohibitive.
2.7 Signalling renewal at BNS is not envisaged before 2015. The Network Rail strategy for this is to ensure that the capacity afforded by renewed components is at least equal to the existing ones, adjusted as required to reflect differences relating to use of longer trains.
2.8 A feasibility study of regional road pricing options is currently underway 5 . No conclusions are yet available in relation to the potential range of impacts on rail. Rail capacity requirements must be reviewed in the light of the results of the completed road pricing study.
3. Capacity for Long-Distance (Intercity) Services
3.1 Capacity for significant growth of in excess of 100% in long distance services can be accommodated until around 2025. After this, however, supplementary capacity would be required across the network and at BNS to cater for further growth in demand for services to London Euston.
3.2 London-Birmingham services are scheduled to be improved to three trains per standard hour in 2009 6 . A fourth train could also be accommodated each hour (currently in morning peak only). While BNS can take 12 car 'Pendolino' trains, the effective route limit is 11-cars. Capacity for London-Birmingham services would, therefore, be limited to four 11-car trains per hour. The date by which this capacity is reached is forecast as about 2025. In addition, BNS can accommodate 'Cross Country' services of twice current train lengths, equivalent to 100% growth. This would require other interventions elsewhere on the network.
3.3 Improvements in journey time and frequencies, and regional economic development on the West Coast corridor are expected to produce even higher growth in the longer term. The West Coast route is forecast to be full at around 2025, so the lack of additional capacity on the network will have to be dealt with as part of a total network solution. There is also no capacity at BNS to accommodate more than the four London trains per hour or longer than 12-car trains forecast as needed after 2025.
4. Capacity at BNS
4.1 BNS has capacity to accommodate significant growth via train lengthening, provided passenger handling capacity is also increased. As with the wider West Coast network, any lack of capacity at BNS will constrain growth on Birmingham-London Euston services after 2025.
4.2 There is a clear plan for the signalling renewal of radial routes leading into BNS, to improve the capacity of these by addressing the poor headways currently experienced. As a result, BNS station, its 'throats' and its eastern approach will then become the biggest capacity constraints on the regional network in future. These cannot be readily resolved. Enhancement of the existing four-track approaches is not feasible as the eastern 'bottleneck' is constrained by the foundations of the Bullring shopping centre and other obstructions.
4.3 Good progress has been made recently in optimising cross-throat movements at BNS. The introduction of limited additional services to improve capacity in future is also possible, for example, after reducing signalling headways on radial routes, by greater use of BNS platform 12 and the creation of a new bay platform. Nevertheless, BNS is operating at close to its capacity and, to balance requirements for through and terminating trains, platforming will continue to be a constraint on network capacity. Longer trains and the introduction of four London Euston trains per hour may reduce the flexibility of the network, and BNS, to deal with significant changes in patterns of demand and operating strategies that may be required in future.
4.4 Platforms at BNS can already cope with longer trains, notably eleven-car London-Birmingham trains, as a means of addressing future capacity needs.
4.5 BNS platforms cannot accommodate the extended train length and loading gauge likely to be associated with a High Speed Line (HSL) 7 scheme.
5. Birmingham New Street Station
5.1 Options are currently being considered to provide improved passenger handling capacity at BNS station itself. This report demonstrates the network is capable, through train lengthening, of handling the increased volume of passengers which such options would enable at BNS.
5.2 Expansion of passenger handling capacity at BNS is required to accommodate the high levels of forecast growth. BNS will remain a fundamental part of the regional rail network in the longer term, as the hub for local and regional services, irrespective of any solution subsequently developed to address capacity for long-distance services needed after 2025.
5.3 The appraisal of the business case for options for the expansion of BNS will be examined by DfT in 2006/7. This will include the 'Gateway' scheme recently proposed by a partnership comprising Birmingham City Council (BCC), Advantage West Midlands (AWM), Network Rail and Centro.
6. Long-term Rail Strategy
6.1 Solutions for addressing rail capacity across the network for beyond 2025 will be developed as part of a longer term transport strategy.
6.2 BNS station and the regional network have sufficient capacity to accommodate growth until around 2025 when capacity for London services is expected to be reached, though capacity for local/regional services is forecast until around 2040. Growth in long-distance demand is expected throughout the rail network and cannot simply be dealt with on a regional basis. It will affect the West Coast route as a whole, and inevitably other parts of the rail network. To this end, DfT intends to publish a long-term rail strategy in summer 2007 8 looking forward to around 2035, including work on HSL and the results of the Eddington Review 9 .
6.3 Further consideration of post 2025 rail capacity requirements in Birmingham and the West Midlands is required after publication of DfT's long-term strategy and further work on road pricing options for the region.
6.4 If long distance services were to be re-located away from BNS after 2025, to provide greater long-term capacity for these, then this would create additional capacity for local and regional services at BNS.
7. Summary
7.1 Significant growth of 120% on regional and suburban services by 2040 can be accommodated on the regional network and BNS via train lengthening combined with planned signalling improvements to allow reduction in train headway and a simplification of the current train timetable.
7.2 Capacity for significant growth of in excess of 100% in long distance services can be accommodated until around 2025. After this, however, supplementary capacity would be required across the network and at BNS to cater for further growth in demand for services to London Euston.
7.3 BNS has capacity to accommodate significant growth via train lengthening, provided passenger handling capacity is also increased. As with the wider West Coast network, any lack of capacity at BNS will constrain growth on Birmingham-London Euston services after 2025.
7.4 Expansion of passenger handling capacity at BNS is required to accommodate the high levels of forecast growth. BNS will remain a fundamental part of the regional rail network in the longer term, as the hub for local and regional services, irrespective of any solution subsequently developed to address capacity for long-distance services needed after 2025.
7.5 Options are currently being considered to provide improved passenger handling capacity at BNS station itself. This report demonstrates the network is capable, through train lengthening, of handling the increased volume of passengers which such options would enable at BNS.
7.6 Solutions for addressing rail capacity across the network for beyond 2025 will be developed as part of a longer term transport strategy.
1 ‘Long-term’ is after 2025
2 Regional Planning Assessment (RPA) July 2006
3 West Midlands Route Utilisation Strategy (RUS), July 2005
4 e.g. chords from Derby, Kings Norton, Benson Road, Kings Norton/Barnt Green re-modelling, Alvechurch loop
5 West Midlands Metropolitan Authorities TIF demand management pilot feasibility study
6 3 trains per hour as standard in ‘December 2008’ timetable (currently limited 3 train per hour operation in existing peak period)
7 HSL assumed high-capacity 400m trains. Ref. also speech Rt Hon Alistair Darling MP, 15 March 2006
8 DfT strategy for the future of rail, published Summer 2007. Ref. speech by Rt Hon Douglas Alexander MP, 10 May 2006
9 Sir Rod Eddington Review of long-term transport needs, Budget 2005 (see also ref. 7)
