The National Transport Model

The National Transport Model (NTM) provides a systematic means of comparing the national consequences of alternative national transport policies or widely-applied local transport policies, against a range of background scenarios which take into account the major factors affecting future patterns of travel.

Road Transport Forecasts 2008

This report presents the lastest DfT forecasts of road traffic growth, the associated congestion, journey times and emissions. The estimates are provided up to 2025.

Updating national car ownership model

The update to the Department’s NATCOP model has been a recalibration to a 2001 base, making use of up-to-date data sources of planning data and household income. The model also allows output of custom income segmentation. This will inform future versions of TEMPRO, which feed into the NTM.

Published:

24 January 2008

National Transport Model (NTM): Summary

The Department has developed a National Transport Model (NTM) as an analytical and policy-testing tool.

Published:

01 September 2003

The National Transport Model - detailed overview (787 kb)

The National Transport Model - Analysis for "Delivering Better Transport: Progress Report".

Published:

01 September 2003

English Regional Traffic Growth and Speed Forecasts (311 kb)

Published:

25 October 2007

Road Transport Forecasts for England 2007 (777 kb)

This report presents the latest Department for Transport forecasts of road traffic growth, plus the associated congestion, journey times and emissions. The estimates are for England and are provided up to 2025.

Published:

25 October 2007

FORGE: The road capacity and costs model - Executive Summary

FORGE is the highway supply module of the National Transport Model. It models the congestion and pollution impacts of traffic growth and investment policies on the road network.

Published:

20 January 2006

FORGE: The road capacity and costs model - Full report (272 kb)

FORGE is the highway supply module of the National Transport Model. It models the congestion and pollution impacts of traffic growth and investment policies on the road network.

Published:

14 November 2005

Modelling and forecasting using the National Transport Model

An overview of the Department's National Transport Model (NTM) which has been used to generate forecasts of the outcomes from the Plan.

Published:

20 January 2006

Development of National Transport Modelling Techniques

Final report.

Published:

20 January 2006

National Transport Model - Working Paper 1 (251 kb)

This is the first in a series of Working Papers describing the National Transport Model.

Published:

14 November 2005

National Transport Model - Working Paper 2 (320 kb)

This paper outlines the forecasting assumptions that form the basis of the model and explains how typical policies are represented.

Published:

23 November 2005

National Transport Model - Working Paper 3

This paper, which is the third in a series of Working Papers describing the National Transport Model, provides some details of the performance of the model.

Published:

14 November 2005

National Transport Model - Working Paper 4

A working paper outlining methods used to estimate the impacts of different policies and that used National Transport Model outputs.

Published:

12 December 2005

Updating car ownership forecasts (620 kb)

Final report by the Institute for Transport Studies.

Published:

14 November 2005

Validation of the National Car Ownership Models - December 2003

A report that validates national car ownership models using data from the Family Expenditure Survey 2000/2001 and the Census 2001.

Published:

14 November 2005

Trip end model (581 kb)

Published:

14 November 2005

SID - Estimating the impacts of Integrated Transport White Paper policies (156 kb)

Published:

14 November 2005

Demand model (1 Mb)

Published:

14 November 2005

Equilibrium modelling - Pass 1 model calibration report (63 kb)

Published:

14 November 2005

GB Freight model (1 Mb)

Published:

14 November 2005

Rail Modelling Framework - Full report (936 kb)

A national rail model framework was commissioned as part of the Department?s multi-modal modelling package to test the Government's Ten Year Plan strategies.

Published:

20 December 2005

Rail model - Executive Summary

Executive summary and the full report in PDF.

Published:

20 January 2006

NTM Equilibrium Modelling Phase 2B (1 Mb)

A report produced by WSP Group on the development of a national-scale, multi-modal, equilibrium modelling suite for integration into the National Transport Model.

Published:

02 April 2007

Data sources

The Department has set up a number of data sources to provide information of assistance to those undertaking transport appraisal and modelling.