Progress note given to the Heathrow Airport Consultative Committee: March 2005

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Introduction

1. The Project for the Sustainable Development of Heathrow (PSDH) has now been under way for a year. Its objective is to work towards robust assessments of the scope for developing the airport further whilst meeting the strict conditions set out in The Future of Air Transport White Paper 2003.

2. By way of reminder, the conditions of Government support for further development at Heathrow are:

  • compliance with air quality standards, including EU limits for Nitrogen Dioxide that will be mandatory from 2010;
  • no net increase in the total area of the 57dBA noise contour compared with Summer 2002 (an area of 127km2); and
  • improvements in public transport access (especially rail) and other measures to help reduce the pressures on the surrounding road network.

3. This note reports on recent and planned work in each of PSDH's main workstreams: air quality, mixed mode, noise and surface access. Background information is on the DfT website: www.dft.gov.uk/aviation/projectheathrow

Air Quality

4. A key objective of PSDH is to increase confidence in the outputs of air quality modelling for Heathrow. Work to improve our modelling tools and data is being supported by three Panels of technical experts (including representatives from the aviation industry, academia and consultancy as well as Heathrow's neighbouring local authorities). The third round of Panel meetings has been taking place this month, and a programme of work is under way in response to their advice. Further background information and notes of previous meetings can be found on the website.

5. To increase data collection around the airport and improve our ability to verify the outputs of the modelling, we have established two new air quality monitoring sites (West End Lane, Hillingdon and BAA Heathrow Points West building on the A4 Bath Road). Hillingdon and Hounslow Councils are both also enhancing their data collection to enable them to monitor compliance better. And BAA are enhancing monitoring at two sites within the airport boundary.

6. We are also conducting a 'data mining' exercise which involves further analysis of existing data. This is relating existing monitoring data to meteorological and operational information in order to gain a better understanding of sensitivity to variable factors that affect air quality at Heathrow.

7. Key components of the effort to improve our modelling capability include a planned Heathrow LIDAR (laser) measurement project during this year to give us a better understanding of the initial dispersion characteristics of aircraft engine emissions. In addition, a model inter-comparison exercise (running the same development case through a number of air quality models) will be undertaken to improve our understanding of the reasons for differences between models, and inform decisions about modelling tools that are best fit for purpose.

8. A further aspect of the technical Panels' work is improving our knowledge of the various emissions sources that impact on the airport environment, including from airside vehicles and road traffic in the area. Further collaborative work in this area (involving the airport operator, airlines and manufacturers) will help us to produce robust emissions inventories for the base case and future year development scenarios; and to consider appropriate mitigation strategies.

9. Over the coming months, DfT will also be working to establish a system of peer review. This will aim to provide independent verification of the output from the technical Panels.

Mixed Mode

10. In accordance with the division of responsibilities indicated in the White Paper, BAA has been leading an initial programme of work on mixed mode, working closely with NATS, the CAA and DfT. The main focus of this has been a feasibility study for BAA by NATS into how mixed mode operations might be safely and efficiently introduced at Heathrow. This will result in the formulation of a 'Concept of Operations' for mixed mode, including possible operating scenarios, likely capacity increases and any operating constraints.

11. The output from NATS' work, which is expected shortly, will allow DfT to undertake further environmental assessment, initially with the help of the CAA's Environmental Research and Consultancy Department (ERCD) on the noise impacts of mixed mode scenarios. This will be followed by air quality assessment of mixed mode once the modelling work in that area has been completed towards the end of 2005.

12. The environmental assessment process is likely to be an iterative one (as proposals are modified to test the effect of mitigation measures) but the proposed phased approach will help to narrow down the options that need to be tested at each stage. Alongside environmental assessment, BAA will continue to take forward work on the layout and airspace issues connected with the possible introduction of mixed mode.

13. As the White Paper made clear, any proposals to introduce mixed mode at Heathrow would be subject to full public consultation. Assuming that feasible options can be identified which meet the environmental conditions of further development, a public consultation is expected to take place in Spring 2006. This will also address the merits or otherwise of retaining the Cranford Agreement and westerly preference arrangements, independent of any proposals for mixed mode operation, following further environmental assessment work currently in hand.

Noise

14. In order to test compliance with the noise condition set out in the White Paper, PSDH will involve undertaking noise assessments for each development scenario (mixed mode or a three-runway airport). As with the work pre-White Paper, this assessment will be performed by ERCD, working under contract to DfT.

15. Recent work with ERCD and BAA has been focused on moving towards agreement about the basis for testing the noise impact of development scenarios, including key assumptions about traffic forecasts, future fleet mix and aircraft noise performance. We expect ERCD to begin preliminary noise impact assessment work in April, concentrating initially on the mixed mode options that have emerged from NATS' 'concept of operation' work. Assessment will employ standard ANCON noise modelling, and will look at the area and population affected at different noise contours, down to 54dBA. Further downstream, ERCD will review the noise impacts of possible third runway development scenarios that look likely to meet the air quality conditions.

Surface Access

16. A key objective of PSDH is to identify a package of surface access measures which could support the increased demand of an expanded airport and do so in a manner consistent with the environmental conditions set out in the White Paper. To this end, over the past year we have been working with BAA and colleagues in the Strategic Rail Authority (SRA) and Highways Agency (HA) to improve our collective surface access modelling capability and to consider what enhancements to existing infrastructure could support further development.

17. To improve our modelling capability, BAA has been engaged in re-estimating and re-validating its surface access mode share model and developing a Heathrow-area road traffic model. Simultaneously, we have been in discussions with the HA to develop a suitable background traffic model which will analyse future road traffic levels on the strategic network around the airport. Model development work should be complete by Summer 2005 and we expect BAA and the HA to commence demand and mode share modelling after that.

18. The White Paper recognised that improvements in public transport, especially rail access, would be an essential feature of plans for further airport development. PSDH has focused in particular on the AirTrack scheme which would provide new rail services between Heathrow and Waterloo, Reading and Guildford. The SRA has broadly satisfied itself on the operability of the scheme and an assessment of the business case is in hand which should reach conclusions over the coming weeks. Subject to the outcome of that assessment, further work is planned in 2005 on possible funding options.

19. Also of significance is the Crossrail scheme since, under current plans, services would run to Heathrow. The Crossrail project - for which a Hybrid Bill is now in Parliament - is being taken forward independently from PSDH but we are in close contact with the scheme's promoters to ensure that issues connected with the airport's possible future development (e.g. the interface with other rail services) are properly addressed.

20. On the roads side, we have identified a number of possible measures that could be implemented in an effort to control road traffic levels and/or emissions. The options range from conventional traffic management measures (e.g. junction restrictions) to road user charging and emission-specific measures such as the establishment of a Low Emissions Zone. The next step in considering these options is for BAA to carry out some preliminary work to assess the feasibility of the measures and their likely costs and benefits. The HA will make an input on matters affecting the strategic road network. This work, which will be taken forward over the next few months, will help us begin to prioritise potential surface access options ahead of formal modelling.

21. In addition to work on improving road and rail access for passengers, BAA has been considering how employers based at Heathrow could influence staff surface access in a way that supports further development. This work is being progressed with the involvement of BA and should come to fruition in line with the broader timetable for surface access assessment.

22. Our current aim is to identify preferred surface access packages by the end of 2005, drawing on the outputs from surface access modelling. These packages will be fed into the scenarios tested for their air quality impacts from the beginning in 2006 (although in reality the process is likely to be an iterative one, with scenarios modified in turn in response to the results of air quality assessment.)