Chapter 6: Appraisal of national policy scenarios (continued)

Chapter 6
Appraisal of National Policy Scenarios - Continued

6.7 Impacts on Surface Access

Existing Surface Access

6.7.1 An airports ability to attract passengers depends heavily on access by surface transport to its potential catchment areas. Good surface access links are of vital importance in maintaining and improving access to air services, and improved road and rail links will be essential to ensure that Scottish airports can cope with forecast increases in demand. Table 6.21 outlines key aspects of current surface access provision at Scottish airports.

Table 6.21: Existing Surface Access Provision at Scottish Airports

	Road	Rail	Bus/Coach	Car Park Spaces	Mode Split
Aberdeen	A96 to Aberdeen A90 to south	No direct access. Nearest station at Dyce.	5% by bus/coach. Local bus services to Aberdeen.	1,500	62% car; 33% taxi; remainder by bus.
Edinburgh	A8 to city centre	No direct access.	30 mins to the city centre by Airlink service.	4,081	55% private car; 29% taxi/mini-cab; 16% bus/coach.
Glasgow	M8 to city centre	No direct service.No direct service. Nearest station Paisley Gilmour St 2 miles away.	Regular bus to local station via 905 local service up to 8 per hour.	4,322	68% car; 23% taxi; 8% bus; 1% other.
Inverness	A96 to city centre	No direct service.	Local bus to city centre every 90 mins.	310	74% private car; 17% taxi; 9% bus.
Prestwick	A77 A78 A79 to city centre	Station adjacent to the terminal.	Regular buses to Glasgow and Edinburgh.	1,500	66% car; 33% rail; 1% bus.
Dundee	M90/A90, A92, Tay Road Bridge	Dundee Main Station is	All Scottish Citylink buses on EDI,GLA,ABZ pass Dundee Airport Terminal frontage. Dundee Bus Station is 10 mins by taxi.	20 and can be augmented	No firm information. High proportion of taxi travel, and pick-up/drop-off due to local catchment.

Aberdeen Airport
6.7.2 Aberdeen Airport is situated 7 miles north of the city of Aberdeen. The main road access to Aberdeen airport is via the dual carriageway (A96). This provides a high level of capacity towards the city and then onward on the A90 to Dundee and Perth and points further south, and to communities to the north. Problems have been identified on the A96 with demand exceeding current capacity in the peak on the outskirts of Aberdeen. Current car parking provision is adequate.

Figure 6.2: Overview of Aberdeen (Dyce) Airport and the Surrounding Area

6.7.3 The low population density throughout the north of Scotland makes it hard to achieve heavy use of public transport by air passengers, although the present low uptake may also be due to the quality of the public transport connections at Aberdeen. There is no direct rail service; the nearest station is at Dyce, which is 5 minutes away by shuttle-bus but that was withdrawn in 2001. Recent surveys put public transport share at around 1%. This is very low for an airport of Aberdeens size which derives much of its demand from the main urban area nearby. Aberdeen airport has now agreed to make improvements at Dyce railway station and to operate a regular bus link from there to the station, but it is hard to anticipate what this will do for the public transport share.

Edinburgh Airport
6.7.4 The majority of passengers travel to Edinburgh airport by car (there is no rail connection). However, Scottish Airports Ltd have had some success in increasing access by public transport (currently 16%), through increased frequencies and longer period of operation of express buses to the centre of Edinburgh. Buses on the A8 benefit from the City Greenways, segregated lanes for buses and taxis, which reduce delays and improve the reliability of journey times.

6.7.5 Road access is off the A8 dual carriageway. While the airport has good road connections to the north and the west, the A8 into the city suffers from non-airport related congestion during both peak and off-peak times of the day. The capacity of the immediate road access to Edinburgh Airport from the A8 is limited by the current junction arrangement.

Figure 6.3: Overview of Edinburgh Airport and the Surrounding Area

6.7.6 Plans for a Guided Busway (CERT) from the airport to the city centre were dropped by Edinburgh City Council partly due to the prospective competition from the Lothian Airlink service. The CERT scheme is being replaced by WEBS (West Edinburgh Busways), but only between the city centre and South Gyle. There are aspirations for upgrading the system to a tram and this may be extended to the airport at some future date.

6.7.7 Various options for creating rail access to the airport are also currently being considered through a feasibility study commissioned by the Scottish Executive, Scottish Airports Ltd, the Strategic Rail Authority and Scottish Enterprise. Based on experience from elsewhere, providing that the capital costs of a rail link are not excessive and that the destinations served, level of frequency, price and service quality all encourage passengers to use the rail link, the prospects for significant patronage look propitious. The link is also likely to have an important role to play in achieving sustainable public transport mode share targets once passenger throughput at Edinburgh gets close to feasibility of a rail link should be examined in anticipation of 10 mppa. This level of traffic is expected to be reached before 2015 in the RASCO Reference Case and Alternative Scottish Base Case forecasts, and close to 2010 in the Alternative Scottish Growth case. Initial work for RASCO identified that there was potential to connect the airport to the existing rail system and that the anticipated distribution of potential demand was likely to encourage significant rail share. But these early conclusions are being revisited and examined thoroughly by the Scottish Executive lead study.

Glasgow Airport
6.7.8 The majority of passengers using Glasgow Airport currently travel to it by car. Glasgow airport does not have a rail link, the main public transport is provided by buses from the city centre and coaches feeding charter flights. Road access to the airport is by slip roads from the M8 which suffers from severe congestion during peak travelling hours. It is estimated that the airport slip roads and internal links can accommodate up to 10 mppa before improvements are required. The M8 will become increasingly congested where it runs past the airport. The car parking provision at Glasgow is 1 space per 3,500 passengers. A new multi-storey car park is under construction which will increase this figure. At the moment only 30% of car users park at the airport; most get a lift from family or friends.

Figure 6.4: Overview of Glasgow Airport and the Surrounding Area

6.7.9 Recent BAA surveys suggest that more people use public transport travelling from the airport than to it. Around 12% of surface departures from the airport are by public transport but only 7% of the arrivals. The marketing of the public transport connections and proximity of the bus stands to the terminal, make it much more attractive to inbound passengers and ease than outbound passengers from the city centre where there is no single, convenient and prominent central place to catch an airport bus.

Inverness Airport
6.7.10 The airport is situated 6 miles north east of the city. Parking for 310 cars is available at Inverness and capacity is rarely exhausted. The Inverness Aberdeen railway line runs close to Inverness Airport perimeter but the airport is not directly rail connected.

Figure 6.5: Overview of Inverness Airport and the Surrounding Area

Prestwick Airport
6.7.11 The main road access to Prestwick airport is by the A79: it is also close to the A77 and A78. There are a number of pressure points on the A77 south of the airport as the road passes Ayr; peak demand exceeds capacity by up to 44%. Prestwicks car parking spaces are adequate to cater for current demand.

Figure 6.6: Overview of Prestwick Airport and the Surrounding Area

6.7.12 Prestwick is the only Scottish airport with a direct rail link, which is why it has a public transport mode share of around 30%. The station is located across the main road from the airports terminal building and is connected by an elevated walkway. There are half-hourly trains during the day to Glasgow and trains also run south to Ayr and Stranraer. Because rail is relatively attractive there are relatively few bus trips.

Dundee Airport
6.7.13 Dundee Airport lies within 2 miles of the A9/M90/A90 trunk route network linking Glasgow and Edinburgh to Aberdeen, via Dundee. Road travel times from the airport to the City Centre or the A90 are little more than 5 minutes in both cases. The Tay Road Bridge to Fife lies about 4 kilometres from the airport.

Figure 6.7: Overview of Dundee Airport and the Surrounding Area

6.7.14 Because of its waterfront location near the city centre, Dundee Airport has an exceptionally short taxi journey time to the citys main rail and bus stations around 10 minutes in both cases. Because Dundee lies astride the main rail route between Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen, it is at the confluence of frequent direct Scotrail Express rail and Citylink/Stagecoach Express coach services between these major cities. There are also sub regional rail services to Glenrothes, Kirkcaldy, Perth and Stirling. GNER and Virgin Cross Country trains also serve Dundee station. The effect of this is to make access to other Scottish airports with a much greater range and frequency of services relatively convenient rather than to widen Dundee airports catchment area.

6.7.15 However, all of the Citylink bus services linking the four major Scottish cities pass immediately in front of Dundee Airports terminal. As traffic develops it might be possible to arrange for them to serve the airport. Because the airport is so near to the urban area, many of Dundees users arrive by taxi or company car or get a lift. Car parking demand at Dundee is therefore well below the ratio required by other airports.

Future Surface Access Requirements

6.7.16 The UK Government policy for airport surface access is set out in the Integrated Transport White Paper A New Deal For Transport; it is supported in Travel Choices for Scotland. Both documents strongly promote the concept of improving public transport links to airports and their share of airport-related journeys and of encouraging alternatives to the car for both airport employees and passengers. Many airports wish to increase their market penetration and secure the largest potential catchment, but they also need to respond to access issues, chiefly congestion, and to improve the proportion of airport related journeys taken by public transport in line with Government objectives.

6.7.17 As the previous section has shown, Scottish airports, with the exception of Prestwick, rely heavily on the road network for surface access. Aberdeen, Glasgow and Edinburgh already suffer from congestion problems. These are not entirely of their own making, because commuter traffic and traffic to nearby developments are major contributors. However, the projected rise in passengers under the RASCO Reference Case, Alternative Scottish Base Case and Growth demand forecasts suggest road access problems at the major Scottish airports may increase. Infrastructure improvements, road and rail, will be needed to help minimise congestion at these airports and improve accessibility to the remainder.

6.7.18 Increasing public transport mode share could contribute to tackling these congestion problems and reduce the scale of road improvements required. The lack of direct rail access also limits the airports potential catchment areas. Despite significantly improved bus access to Glasgow and Edinburgh and the prospect of improved rail and bus connection to Aberdeen both the Part 1 RAS and Part 2 RASCO studies identified direct rail access as an important priority.

Public Transport Options

6.7.19 There are a number of public transport alternatives to car travel that can be provided at airports. These services can be ranked in order of infrastructure requirements (and hence cost). Unless operating and capital costs are to be subsidised they have to be financed by ticket revenue streams. The ability to institute services depends on getting passengers to use them to travel to the airport, and increasing the public transport share. This allows the identification of a series of thresholds at which various public transport modes are likely to be triggered. The alternative forms of public transport, their potential infrastructure and service development and the suggested thresholds of passenger throughput typically required to make them operationally viable are set out in Table 6.22.

Table 6.22: Airport Surface Access Infrastructure Options Based on Passenger Throughput

	Passenger Throughput
	Very Low	Low	Medium	High 7.5 + mppa
Forecast by 2030			5-15 mppa	15 + mppa
Airports	Inverness	Prestwick	Aberdeen	Glasgow, Edinburgh
Generic Infrastructure Options
Road Network	Local road network (possibly dual carriageway access required).	Junction access to dual carriageway essential.	Dual carriageway access/Motorway access needed.	Motorway Access via key junctions.
Public Transport	Hopper bus to City Centre. Minibus. Shared taxi.	Bus network to city centre and wider network for minibus pick up. Role for tour operator coaches.	Guided bus/LRT role. Extensive bus access required to suburbs and outlying areas. Light rail access to city centre. Rail access via satellite station and shuttle or guided bus link.	Heavy rail link accessing wider network or largest local centre for network services. Bus and LRT. Remote Check in.
Parking	Provision/mppa High.	Less parking/mppa requirement than very low throughput airports, because of better PT, but still significant.	Off site parking is increasingly important.	Considerable off site parking required often some distance from airport.
Possible Long Term Mode Split for Public Transport	5-10%	10-15%	15-25%	25-40%

6.7.20 If the kind of generic mode share targets set out in Table 6.22 are to be realised at Edinburgh and Glasgow, rail access (heavy or LRT) is likely to be an important factor in achieving this. However, bus and coach links will also continue to play an important part. Bus based links and rail access via a satellite station are more realistic expectations at Aberdeen and Prestwick, and minibus and hopper bus connections for Inverness.

Road Access Issues

6.7.21 Indicative analysis undertaken for RASCO helped to identify where the major Scottish airports are likely to experience highway access problems in the future. A more detailed appraisal forms part of the analysis of runway options in Chapter 7.

6.7.22 In the analysis undertaken of the impacts of National Policy Scenarios at each airport an assessment was made of how much airport-related traffic is likely to be generated by 2030. This was then related to forecasts of background non-airport traffic flows. The analysis indicates the proportion of airport-related traffic relative to background flows varies significantly from airport to airport and link to link. Where airport-related traffic exceeds 30% this is taken as the threshold for an airport making a major contribution to traffic flow. Where it is less than 10% we have regarded this as de minimus. The proportion of airport traffic in itself gives no indication of the links where existing infrastructure will be under the greatest pressure.

6.7.23 In order to provide a better prediction of the need for improvements or additional infrastructure, forecasts of all-day traffic have been assessed against all-day link capacities, to develop a volume to capacity ratio; this concept is explained further in Chapter 7. Here we have used it to identify where each link falls in terms of four categories of congestion no congestion, minor, intermediate and major levels of congestion. Table 6.23 provides details of this analysis for Scottish airports for 2030.

Table 6.23: Number of Key Links Experiencing Stated Levels of Congestion at Each Airport

	South East Constrained				UK Wide Constrained				RASCO Reference Case
	60 to 80%	80 to 100%	More than 100%	Problems	60 to 80%	80 to 100%	More than 100%	Problems	60 to 80%	80 to 100%	More than 100%	Problems
Aberdeen	2	1	1	Major	2	1	1	Major	1	2	1	Major
Edinburgh	4	1	2	Major	3	1	2	Major	3	2	2	Major
Glasgow	3	0	1	Major	3	0	1	Major	2	1	1	Major
Inverness	0	0	0	NC	0	0	0	NC	0	0	0	NC
Prestwick	1	1	0	Int	1	1	0	Int	1	1	0	Int

Aberdeen
6.7.24 Major levels of congestion would be experienced on the A96 so constraining access to the airport. Airport traffic accounts for 30% to 40% of total traffic on the A96 close to the airport. An increase in the public transport share to around 17.5% would reduce the amount of airport-related traffic and hence congestion on the A96. To achieve this, public transport connections from Dyce and Aberdeen city centre will need to be much more attractive than they are now.

Glasgow and Edinburgh
6.7.25 The issues affecting future road access to Glasgow and Edinburgh are examined in more detail in Chapter 7. This initial RASCO study analysis indicates major problems at both airports under all the policy scenarios under consideration despite positive assumptions of a better share for public transport. The more detailed analysis in Chapter 7 confirms these findings.

Inverness
6.7.26 The key links at Inverness airport are forecasted to be significantly under capacity in 2015 and 2030. Airport traffic accounts for less than 10% of total traffic on these links and there are a few surface access issues are raised other than minor junction improvements.

Prestwick
6.7.27 Even at 2030 road key links at Prestwick are forecast to be under capacity, and local surface access is therefore not considered an issue. Upgrading the stretch of the A77 that is not currently dual carriageway would significantly improve journey times to the airport from Glasgow.

6.7.28 Table 6.24 reviews the long term parking which we have estimated may be required under our different RASCO Reference Case scenario demand forecast. This provides us with an upper-end of the range forecast for each of the airports.

Car Parking

Table 6.24: Car Parking Requirements

Airport	2000	RASCO Ref Case 2030			Alt Scottish Base Case 2030
	Current Spaces	Low Ratio	High Ratio	Additional Parking area Required (ha)	Low Ratio	High Ratio	Additional Parking area Required (ha)
Aberdeen	1,880	6,933	10,400	7-15.5	6,933	10,400	7-15.5
Edinburgh	4,200	16,100	21,467	36-51.8	19,900	26,533	47-67.0
Glasgow	5,000	18,800	25,067	41-60.2	16,100	21,467	33-49.4
Inverness	300	1,067	1,600	2-3.9	1,067	1,600	2-3.9
Prestwick	1,570	3,733	5,600	6-12.1	3,733	5,600	6-12.1

6.7.29 Car parking needs at Aberdeen rise under both the RASCO Reference Case and Alternative Scottish Base Case demand forecasts to between 6,933 and 10,400 spaces at 2030. In terms of land take, this represents between 7 and 15.5 hectares of additional surface level car parking.

6.7.30 The Alternative Scottish Base Case forecast at Edinburgh have marked implications for car parking requirements. By 2030, between 19,900 and 26,533 spaces will be needed up from the 4,200 that existed in 2000. If this were constructed as surface level parking, it would imply a need for an additional 47 to 67 hectares of land, but there is potentially significant scope for delivering at least the short-term component, significantly reducing the potential land take.

6.7.31 At Glasgow, car parking requirements rise to between 18,000 and 25,067 spaces by 2030 under the RASCO Reference Case scenario, implying a need for between 41 and 60.2 hectares of land for surface car parking at Glasgow. SAL are building a new multi-storey (5 decks) car park which should provide around 2,500 spaces.

6.7.32 Under both RASCO Reference Case and Alternative Scottish Base Case forecasts Prestwick is forecast to need between 3,733 and 5,600 car parking spaces by 2030. This represents an additional 6 to 12.1 hectares of surface parking most of which should be capable of accommodation within the airports boundaries.

6.7.33 The traffic forecasts for the RASCO Reference Case and Alternative Scottish Base Case scenarios at Inverness imply an increase in demand for car parking of around 1,067 and 1,600 spaces by 2030, relative to the 300 spaces that existed in 2000. If built as surface parking, the extra spaces represent between 2 and 3.9 hectares of additional car parking. Again there is plenty of scope for meeting this level of provision.

Questions

Should the focus of any public expenditure which may be available to help improve surface access to Scotlands airports be on improving local access or links to other regions within Scotland or to other parts of the UK and why? Under many of our National Policy Scenarios there will be a large increase in the number of passengers using Scotland's airports over our forecasting period. Our analysis indicates this will place considerable strain on surface access provision, particularly on a number of key road links: Should these surface access constraints be addressed? Which schemes outlined in the document do you consider are the key ones for improving access to the regions airports and what priority should they be given relative to other projects identified in the Scottish Transport Delivery Plan? Which do you think should not be taken forward? Are there any surface access schemes identified in the analysis that you support or oppose? Please give your reasons. Are there any surface access improvements, which should be regarded as preconditions before new capacity can take place at airports within the study area? How should these surface access improvements be funded? Under all our UK National Policy Scenarios, we forecast that a significant number of passengers originating in Scotland will still use airports outside the region, such as Manchester. Should surface access schemes to facilitate journeys from Scotland to these airports be considered? What priority should be given to the improvement of surface access to airports outside the region for passengers originating in Scotland? How should these surface access improvements be funded?

6.8 Impacts on Regional Planning

Urbanisation

6.8.1 The growth of regional airports, both in terms of the land required for airport operational needs, aviation related development and related activity such as business parks, will have significant impacts on local land use policy. Consideration also needs to be given to wider pressures, including housing to accommodate those employed both directly and indirectly as a result of airport activity. Where there is a plentiful labour supply (in areas of relatively high unemployment) these pressures are likely to be more moderate than in areas of high employment, where those filling new vacancies are likely to be drawn from further away.

6.8.2 With this in mind, as part of the RASCO study, indicative work has been carried out to assess potential urbanisation pressures at the main regional airports, in view of forecast levels of demand and associated employment forecasts. For the purposes of this exercise demand up to 2015 has been considered. This allows direct cross-reference to Scottish National Planning Guidance, which provides forecasts of the level of housing provision in each of the Scottish regions.

6.8.3 In order to assess whether increases in airport and airport-related workforces are likely to be met within the airports own locality, current unemployment amongst low-skilled and unskilled workers, who are likely to live close to the airport (skilled and professional staff can be attracted from a much wider catchment areas), has been compared against forecasts for this type of labour generated by the airports. This allows us to identify at a crude level where there would need to be in migration of workers to meet labour demands generating a need for new housing or whether the local requirements could be met locally.

6.8.4 The Scottish Executive and its agencies were also consulted in order to provide a reliable picture of local circumstances now and likely future trends. While this work can only provide a simple overview of the complex environmental, employment, economic, housing and transport factors which create urbanisation pressures, it does allow an initial view on whether and where those pressures could arise from new airport development.

Glasgow and Edinburgh
6.8.5 A much more detailed and robust analysis was undertaken for Edinburgh and Glasgow in the Scottish Part 3 Runway study than could be provided by the RASCO study. This suggests there could be labour market shortages in the catchments of both airports and that in Glasgow this could be severe. However, neither airport was expected to have housing pressures. In Glasgow there is plenty of available housing and in Edinburgh planned housing provision should be able to absorb any new demand from extra labour at the airport.

Other Scottish Airports
6.8.6 Aberdeen airport relies mainly on workers from the city of Aberdeen and from nearby parts of Aberdeenshire. Extra demand for low-skilled workers at the airport will be negligible in 2015 and not substantial in 2030. These jobs should be easily filled by the existing labour force, and by 2030, when the North Sea oil and gas industries are expected to be in decline, employment rates in the city are unlikely to be as strong as they are now.

6.8.7 The local labour force should satisfy an increased demand for labour at Prestwick Airport. If this is not the case, the large labour market provided by Glasgow is nearby and linked by rail to the airport. Given the size of its population and its inherent economic difficulties, the airport should have no problems in attracting labour. Table 6.25 shows the likely position at Aberdeen and Prestwick.

Table 6.25: Forecast Employment at Aberdeen and Prestwick

Airport	New Low-skilled Jobs 2015	New Low-skilled Jobs 2030	70% of ILO Unemployed in Catchment
Aberdeen	Negligible	600	7,700
Prestwick	850	700	9,800

6.8.8 At Inverness the forecasts of direct and indirect employment are for less than 1000 jobs. This is not considered large enough to create any urbanisation pressures. The same is true of Dundee Airport.

Economic Development and Regeneration Initiatives

6.8.9 The Impacts on the Economy examined the assessment of the additional jobs that Scottish airports could generate under different policy scenarios and productivity growth assumptions. The jobs created can make important contributions to local economic and regeneration initiatives. In Scotland such initiatives fall under two main programme areas Objective 1 and 2 programmes funded by the EU and Regional Selective Assistance programmes run by the Scottish Executive and its agencies. These are focussed on areas of greatest need, and frequently reflect underlying patterns of deprivation. There are shown in Figure 6.8.

Figure 6.8: Map of Deprivation Areas in Scotland

6.8.10 Of the major airports in Scotland, only Edinburgh and Aberdeen, both of which are in the heart of a thriving sub-regional economy, fall outside these programme areas. There is therefore considerable scope for using programme resources at the other major airports to help secure the opportunities that airport development can bring under each of the policy scenarios under consideration. Harnessing this potential is one of the key areas identified in Chapter 9 for the Scottish Executive and its agencies.

Green Belt

6.8.11 Airports are major land users, not only for operational support of aircraft but also for associated ancillary and commercial activities which naturally tend to locate close to airport sites. In many districts airports can be the biggest landowner. Although the majority of the airside land at an airport is open, the commercial nature of an airport requires the provision of landside buildings to cater for user services and facilities, such as terminals, and for other airport support functions such as car parking.

6.8.12 When looking at options for the expansion of airports, it is vital to consider their environment impact on currently owned land and new land required for development. This is especially important in the current climate where sustainable development of airports is a core objective of both the UK Government and Scottish Executive. One of the most important considerations is the potential effect of airport development on areas designated as green belt.

Green Belt Policy
6.8.13 The main thrust of green belt policy is to keep land open and check the unrestricted sprawl of large built-up areas. This is contrary to a commonly held belief that green belt land is designated because it is particularly attractive or agriculturally valuable, or has other environmental and landscape qualities.

6.8.14 The UK Government and Scottish Executive both attach great importance to green belts but they cannot direct local planning authorities to designate particular areas as green belt or to remove areas from green belt designation. It is for local planning authorities through the development plan process, to decide which areas should be designated as green belt. Local planning authorities can also decide to remove the designation to allow the land to be used or developed for specific purposes.

6.8.15 While it is ultimately the responsibility of local planning authorities to decide on the designation of green belt land in Scotland, they must follow specific guidance issued by the Scottish Executive in the Scottish Development Department Circular 24/1985.

Impacts on Airports
6.8.16 Whilst the general principles of green belt policy should be applied to airport sites, but the Scottish Development Department Circular 24/1985 does allow for certain levels of development and infilling between buildings for major developed sites, into which category some developments at Scottish airports will fall.

6.8.17 Infilling is limited to the continuous use of the site to help secure jobs and prosperity without further prejudicing the green belt. The infilling must not also exceed the height of existing buildings or lead to a major increase in the developed proportion of the site. Redevelopment of major developed sites is also permitted if it offers the opportunity for environmental improvement, but the character and dispersal and footprint of proposed redevelopment will all need to be considered.

6.8.18 Some degree of development can therefore be permitted within the green belt. Development plans allow for development at airports on operational land in connection with the provision of services and facilities. More substantial development which would be regarded as a major departure from current development plan policy would need to be considered against criteria setting out the exceptional circumstances in which development in green belt might be allowed. Development permitting the growth of a major airport might be one such circumstance.

Scottish Airports and Green Belt
6.8.19 Table 6.26 shows the relation between Scottish airports and green belt. In Scotland only Edinburgh is directly affected by green belt designation. Based on green belt designation contained in latest available development plans, the whole site is within the West Edinburgh green belt area. The long term future of the current green belt boundaries and the role of Edinburgh within it is considered in the draft West Edinburgh Planning Guidance published recently by the Scottish Executive ^[22] .

6.8.20 Prestwick is completely surrounded by green belt and Glasgow has green belt to the north and west of the airport. Aberdeen has green belt designations nearby.

6.8.21 There would therefore be direct impacts on green belt from major development at Edinburgh Airport under all policy scenarios. At Glasgow they are likely to arise only in the Alternative Scottish Growth scenario and at Aberdeen if there is a runway extension. Elsewhere the regional level of development should be possible within current site boundaries.

Table 6.26: Scottish Airports and Green Belt
Region	Airport	In Green Belt	Surrounding Area	Policy
Scotland	Edinburgh	Yes	Completely within green belt	Airport falls within the Lothian Structure Plan and Finalised Rural West Edinburgh Local Plan areas. Local plan is supportive of new airport related development within the airports operational boundary but does not support expansion of airport or other development outside site due to designated green belt. Position being reviewed by West Edinburgh Planning Guidance and Structure Plan Review.
	Glasgow	Yes	Land to the north and west of the airport is designated green belt	Airport covered by Strathclyde Structure Plan, Glasgow & Clyde Valley Structure Plan. Planning policy is supportive of the growth of the airport and for airport related development. Possible minor future adjustment for green belt boundaries may be required depending on the scale of development at the Airport.
	Aberdeen	Partially	Green belt lies in close proximity to the North and South.	Unlikely to be any direct effects unless runway extended.
	Inverness	No		Local & Regional Planning Strategy supports retention & expansion of air services from Inverness Airport.
	Prestwick	Yes	The airport site is surrounded by green belt	Strathclyde Structure Plan recognises the Significant potential for economic development associated with growth in Prestwick Airport. Land around the airport is reserved for airport related uses, and significant impacts on the green belt considered unlikely under our policy scenarios.

6.9 A Central Scotland Airport?

Background

6.9.1 Based on our demand forecasts and infrastructure capacity analysis in Chapters 4 and 5 and the evidence they present about the potential need for additional runway capacity to serve the Central Belt in the second half of the White Paper planning horizon out to 2030, we have also looked again at the option of a new Central Scotland airport as one possibility for meeting the shortfall in capacity.

6.9.2 The possibility of constructing a new airport in the Central Lowlands of Scotland has been examined several times in the past; the last time was in the 1970s. On each of the previous occasions the underlying rationale was less to do with a prospective shortfall in runway capacity and more to do with focusing airport growth and creating a potential hub airport for Scotland. The argument has always been that by splitting demand between the existing airports at Edinburgh and Glasgow airlines are unable to attract a critical mass of demand that would justify a wider range of services and improved frequencies serving Scotland direct, rather than rely upon interlining over a hub or hubs in the South East and East of England and in Europe. However, the biggest single handicap to the proposal has always been actually finding a suitable site in the Central Lowlands that might be able to meet the need ^[23] .

Location

6.9.3 In order to be comprehensive and examine all potential options for airport development in Scotland, as part of the RASCO study we have revisited the Central Scotland airport concept. Our starting point was certain fundamental criteria needed to underpin a major new airport development. These included:

• flat land;
• good surface access links;
• accessibility from key markets; and
• approach and departure patterns which avoid urban areas.

6.9.4 Sites which meet all of these criteria are not easy to find in the Central Lowlands. However, we identified a site to the north of Airth alongside the Firth of Forth as the most promising option. It was also one of the Central Scotland airport sites examined in the past. We then undertook a limited high level re-examination of the Central Scotland airport concept.

6.9.5 The following sub-sections discuss the potential impacts of an airport in this location as well as providing an overview of the potential benefits (in terms of financial rate of return upon the investment) and costs of the proposal.

The Options Examined

6.9.6 The core concepts we examined were a 20 mppa single-runway site and a twin-runway option. If a new Central Scotland airport development were to happen, its eventual size and whether it requires two runways or one would depend largely on whether the existing airports at Edinburgh and Glasgow stayed open or not. If one of the existing major airports closed a new single-runway airport would be capable of meeting forecast demand by 2030. If both airports closed a two-runway airport would be required.

6.9.7 Although we have not produced any layout plans for a new airport we have checked whether the dimensions needed for a single and a two runway airport could be provided. The site we considered is an area of open land to the north of Airth and immediately south of Dunsmore on the banks of the Firth of Forth, adjacent to the A905. The exact alignment of a new airport would be largely driven by the need to avoid overflying of Alloa, which lies to the north and Kincardine which lies to the south. It appears possible that these objectives can be met and that there is sufficient flat land to accommodate a single-runway or twin-runway airport with at least one 3000 m runway, although a number of roads and other obstacles are likely to require diversion or demolition.

6.9.8 These proposals were then assessed using five forecasting scenarios:

• Scenario 1 Edinburgh and Glasgow unconstrained (ie no new airports);
• Scenario 2 Edinburgh closed;
• Scenario 3 Glasgow closed;
• Scenario 4 Edinburgh and Glasgow open but not unconstrained; and
• Scenario 5 Edinburgh and Glasgow closed.

Forecast Demand

6.9.8 The viability of a new Central Lowlands will in large part depend on whether the existing Glasgow or Edinburgh Airports remain open. The core unconstrained scenario (which is based in the RASCO Reference Base Case but with no capacity constraints at any Scottish airport), from the Scottish Part 3 Runway study is included for comparative purposes in Table 6.27 and forms the Base Case. The traffic at Prestwick under each forecasting option, as this airport is also potentially capable of catering for overspill demand from some of the Central Belt catchment area. The new airport is assumed to open in 2021. For consistency, all forecasts were carried out using the central case future demand distribution assumptions used in the Scottish Part 3 Runway study. These are set out in Chapter 7.

Table 6.27: Demand Forecasts for a New Central Scotland Airport at 2030
			Passenger Demand (mppa)
Scenario	New site	Edinburgh	Glasgow	Prestwick	Airport Total
Edinburgh & Glasgow Unconstrained (Base Case)		23.9	17.1	1.7	42.7
Edinburgh Closed	26.2		15.9	1.7	43.8
Glasgow Closed	22.1	14.1		2.8	39.0
Edinburgh & Glasgow Open	14.0	14.0	11.4	1.7	45.1
Edinburgh & Glasgow Closed	41.0			2.4	43.4

6.9.9 The greatest traffic for a new airport (41.0 mppa) is generated if both Edinburgh and Glasgow close; but the greatest total for Scotland is if the new airport opens as a single runway option alongside Edinburgh and Glasgow, in which case 45.1 mppa is recorded. As Airth is situated relatively close to Edinburgh it is able to capture some of the potential traffic from Edinburghs catchment area; the traffic captured would be highest at the new airport if Edinburgh was closed. Prestwick performs best under the Glasgow closed option, as it is best placed to pick up spill traffic from the Glasgow catchment area. However that option also generates the lowest total for Scotland with a new airport.

6.9.10 The higher passenger forecasts arising from the three airports can probably be explained by the greater frequency of services offered by the Scottish airport system as a whole, increased competition and also the improved accessibility three Central Belt airports together would offer to potential passengers both in Scotland and beyond. However, it is also clear from the forecasts that a single runway new site option requires one of the existing airports to close if it is to attract over 20 mppa. But the forecasts do not reflect the scope for a single consolidated airport to develop an interlining market attracting domestic and international to international interlining passengers. The greater range of routes which a single large airport could sustain are more likely to attract this kind of traffic, although the numbers involved are likely to remain small because of the strong hub competition from elsewhere in the UK and Europe.

Impacts on Safety

Public Safety Zones
6.9.11 The orientation of the runway in a south west to north east direction to optimise the alignment of the runways with the prevailing wind conditions, would result in PSZs at either end of the runway at the airport that would be essentially rural in nature. No detailed examination has been undertaken of Obstacle Limitation Surfaces associated with one or more new runways, but a south west to north east runway orientation could create approach problems at the new site given its location in the Forth valley. The surrounding terrain rises steeply on either side of the proposed site: to the east are the Cleish Hills and to the west the Kilsyth Hills. There are also a number of obstacles in the vicinity of the site, including the mothballed Kirncardine power station and power lines that cross the Forth adjacent to the Kincardine Bridge.

Airspace
6.9.12 Adding a fourth airport into the ATC system in the Central Belt will complicate the overall system and possibly reduce the capacity of the Scottish Terminal Movement Area (TMA) as a whole as complex interaction procedures might have to be invoked. However, if one or more existing sites are closed then, with some reconfiguration of the Scottish TMA, the complications associated with opening a new airport in the proposed location are likely to be much reduced.

Impacts on the Economy

Financial viability
6.9.13 The costs estimated for a new Central Belt airport with a 20 mppa capacity are heavily dependent upon the exact location of the site chosen. At the top end of the cost range they could be as much as £1.4 bn in 2000 prices, based on unit cost rates and broad estimates of the preparatory work required. This cost includes £0.5 bn of earthwork costs associated with the creation of a flat airport platform on hard, uneven terrain giving a cost of £65m/mppa. By way of comparison, cost estimates prepared for a new runway at Edinburgh and Glasgow ^[24] in the Part 3 Runway study, which are summarised in Chapter 7, range between £51m and £111m per mppa (although the latter figure includes substantial sums allocatted with demolition and re-building of existing terminal facilities at Glasgow). The site at Airth is not thought to be on hard rock, but it is on the floodplain of the Forth and in an area of old mineworking means substantial additional costs may be incurred creating a stable airport platform to a height that eliminates flood risk. In our view, therefore, the high end of the cost range is likely to be a useful, if conservative, indicator of the costs associated with a new airport at Airth.

6.9.14 To account for uncertainty in the cost estimates (it may for example be possible to source fill materials locally), we decided to assess the financial viability of the airport against a wider range of indicative cost estimates including some that are more optimistic. The range used was from £33m/mppa, based on costs for a new North Bristol airport, which occupies a similar flood plan location, through £50m/mppa based on costings for a new close parallel runway at Edinburgh in the Part 3 Runway Study, to the higher cost of £100m/mppa based on more detailed work undertaken as part of the RAS programme for a Midlands new site which also requires substantial preliminary earth works. On balance, from the limited work undertaken and for the reasons outlined above costs towards the higher end of spectrum presented would seem the most plausible.

6.9.15 Comparing all the cost estimates including our initial estimates of the £65m/mppa against the demand forecasts suggests that only if both existing airports were closed would there be sufficient demand for a new two-runway airport to be viable, and then only at the low end of the cost range. At £50m per million passengers the viability becomes marginal and worsens as the costs increase.

6.9.16 For a single runway, with demand capped at 20 mppa, Table 6.28 indicates that under low capital cost estimates the new Central Belt airport could be financially viable if at least one of the existing airports were closed. The financial case becomes marginal under medium capital costs on which basis it performs similar to a new close-spaced parallel runway opened at Edinburgh after 2020 (see Chapter 7). Once base costs of £65m/mppa (our best estimate) are reached, the financial case for a new airport becomes poor and the performance deteriorates further under the high cost estimates.

Table 6.28: New Central Scotland Airports Financial Internal Rate of Return (% pa, Nominal, Net of Tax)
Scenario	Capital costs
	Base - £65m/mppa	Low- £33m/mppa	Medium- £50m/mppa	High- £100/mppa
Single runway
Edinburgh closed	7.8	15.5	10.6	4.8
Glasgow closed	7.6	15.0	10.3	4.6
Edinburgh & Glasgow open	6.0	11.6	8.1	3.5
Edinburgh & Glasgow closed	7.8	15.1	10.5	4.7
Part 3 Runway options
Edinburgh Close parallel	N/A	N/A	9.4 11.4	N/A
Glasgow Close parallel	N/A	N/A	N/A	2.9

6.9.17 Our appraisal has not taken into account potential receipts from the sale of the existing airport sites, that is implied under any of the closure scenarios. At both Edinburgh and Glasgow, any value which might arise from the scale of land currently occupied by those airports, is itself primarily dependent on the presence of the airports. The closure would substantially reduce the value of both sites especially as they are in green belt. It would also be difficult to capture the value of the existing sites for the new airport project unless it was taken forward by the existing owner Scottish Airports Ltd (SAL). To do so, SAL would have to write off significant sunk costs and these seem likely to negate any value which might be realised from the development of the existing sites. On balance, therefore, it is more realistic not to pray in aid in the financial appraisal of a new airport any significant contribution from redevelopment of Edinburgh and Glasgow Airports.

Economic Benefits/Costs
6.9.18 Clearly a financial appraisal is only one component of project viability. Although we did not undertake a detailed analysis of the economic benefits of this new site, it is likely that the net economic benefits of the new Central Scotland airport will be lower than the expansion of the existing site at Edinburgh, but higher than the development of Glasgow.

6.9.19 Traffic at the new airport is forecast to be highest when both existing airports are closed. But this would impose significant economic disbenefits to passengers from Edinburgh and particularly Glasgow, who would incur additional travel costs from using the new site. It would also generate significant disbenefits to non-users from increased congestion in the vicinity of the airport adding to non-airport related journey times. If both existing airports remain open the new airport is forecast to handle only 14 mppa by 2030, insufficient to justify its construction. The net economic benefits of the new airport would be highest if Edinburgh was closed and Glasgow remains open. This is because traffic that would have used Edinburgh would need to use the new airport and this option therefore maximises traffic and economic benefits which are available for a new airport.

6.9.25 However, even with the closure of Edinburgh airport the net economic benefits of the new airport would be less than those from expansion of the existing site, for the following reasons:

• Capital costs would be higher; our best estimate is that a new airport that a new airport will cost £1.4 bn, which is £0.5 bn more than a new runway and associated terminal development at Edinburgh.
• Passengers from Edinburgh would incur additional travel costs. Over half of the passengers at Edinburgh airport come from the City of Edinburgh. If these passengers were forced to use the new airport then this would increase the length of their airport access journeys by around 40 km.
• Passengers from central Scotland and the western Highlands would gain from a reduction in travel distance but there are not likely to be many of them.
• Producer benefits are likely to be higher due to the use of wholly new terminal and airport facilities. However, any increase in producer benefits would be more than offset by the reduction in passenger benefits.

6.9.26 Closure of either or both of the existing sites also represents a resource cost. Assets that still have some useful life would need to be disposed of. Although both the existing major airport sites would have some resale value (particularly Edinburgh), it is unlikely that all the future lost benefits would be recouped by this means.

Impacts on People

Noise
6.9.27 Although no detailed modelling work has been undertaken, for the new airport site. However, the rural location of the proposed site suggests that it would have limited impact in terms of noise exposure on populations, particularly if runway alignment was designed to reduce overflying of Alloa, Kinkardine and Clackmannan.

Air Quality
6.9.28 As with noise, no detailed work has been undertaken, but the rural location would suggest that few air quality impacts are likely to arise from a new airport.

Impacts on the Natural and Built Environment

Ecology and heritage
6.9.29 The site examined could potentially have significant ecological impacts. Large sections of the Firth of Forth from Stirling to the coast are designated as SSSIs.

Impacts on Surface Access

6.9.25 The location of the proposed site is largely driven by its good surface access compared to the existing airports at Edinburgh and Glasgow. Road access is very good, with the M9, M876 and M80 providing ready access to both Edinburgh and Glasgow and the M9 offering a strategic route from the north. The A905 would need upgrading from the existing single carriageway link; the proposed second Kincardine crossing would also be needed to provide better links across the Firth of Forth to the north east.

6.9.26 Providing rail access to the site is not as easy as it would be to Edinburgh, although existing lines in the vicinity of Falkirk conceivably allow direct services from both the east and west. A dedicated airport station on a branch from the Falkirk to Stirling Line would be necessary to maximise the potential of rail access. The line is some distance from the proposed site and the costs of such a link have not been quantified. It would also provide a rail head configuration which is not as efficient in viability, journey time or use of rolling stock as an airport station offering through running services to other destinations.

Impacts on Regional Planning

6.9.27 From the financial analysis presented above, it is clear that for a new airport such as the one we have examined to be a commercial success, one or both of the existing airports at Edinburgh and Glasgow would need to close, with large implications for these locations in terms of lost jobs and associated business.

6.9.28 Many of these opportunities would of course be transferred to the new airport, but part of the case for it would need to be based on operating cost and efficiencies and this could result in a net loss of jobs relative to other options. Moreover, given its rural location and potential scale, sourcing of employees may prove challenging. The towns of Grangemouth, Falkirk, Larbert and Stenhousemuir are all potential sources of labour force, as is Stirling to the north but the labour market catchment, even if it includes these urban areas, is unlikely to match both Glasgow and Edinburgh.

Questions

If you are of the view that Scotland should seek to accommodate its own demand (and clawback demand from North of England airports), how might this best be achieved: Can the existing airports be developed to provide sufficient capacity? Should the case for constructing a new airport in Central Scotland still be considered? What would be the basis for such a case? When should it be built and how might it be funded?

Summary of a Central Scotland Airport

6.9.29 Previous studies into the possibilities for a new, centrally located airport in the Scottish Lowlands have generally foundered on the inability to find a suitable site. This was the conclusion of the 1976 Regional Airports Consultation document, which preceded the 1978 Airport White Paper. In the review that has been undertaken of the Airth site in support of the consultation document, we find little to change that conclusion.

6.9.30 The economics of such a site are wholly reliant upon closure of one or both of Edinburgh and Glasgows existing airports. Even if this were to occur (and it is difficult to see how such a requirement could be delivered), the extended surface access trips for most passengers, and the congestion caused to non-users are economic penalties which make it very hard to see the new airport as even a marginally attractive economic project.

6.9.31 The likely environmental implications of a development at Airth would also be a significant handicap to its realisation. The location of the site on the banks of the Firth of Forth, with its associated environmental designations and bird populations which could present a significant birdstrike hazard and ecological impact further undermining an already fragile business case.

6.9.32 Since these issues were explored in 1976, significant development has taken place at both Edinburgh and Glasgow Airports, this will greatly increase the costs of writing off investment. It is difficult to envisage, therefore, a scenario in which closure of either one, let alone both, could be justified despite the undoubted attraction of consolidation to airlines serving Scotland. A far more robust site for a centrally located alternative would need to be found and we do not believe such a site exists. Our conclusion is, therefore, that a new Central Scotland airport is most unlikely to be a worthwhile proposition.

6.10 Summary

Table 6.29: Summary National Policy Scenarios Assessment Findings
Airport	Forecast Growth Range	Impacts on Economy*	Impacts on People	Impacts on the Built and Natural Environment	Impacts on Regional Planning	Impacts on Surface Access	Impacts on Safety**
Aberdeen	4.2-5.2 mppa	Up to 960 additional direct jobs by 2030 under SEC scenario case; 1182 additional jobs under the Facilitating Growth scenario.	Moderate increase in population in 57 dBA contour under the Facilitating Growth scenario. With technology improvements the additional population affected decreases marginally. No air quality limits exceeded in any scenario.	No direct impacts anticipated on Scheduled Ancient Monuments. No major ecology impacts. No National Scenic Areas affected.	No problems identified with labour markets or housing requirements. Impacts on green belt only likely if runway extension is required.	Under all scenarios major levels of congestion likely and an upgrade to the A96 into Aberdeen necessary, alongside an increase in PT modal split between 15%-25%.	Up to a 40% increase between 2000-15 for PSZ area based on RRC demand forecast from 2030. Increased ATC movements in Scotland may necessitate designation of a new airway from Pole Hill via Newcastle to Aberdeen. Requires co-ordination with MoD.
Edinburgh	9.0-22.5 mppa	Up to 3200 additional direct jobs by 2030 under SEC scenario; 11864 additional jobs under the Facilitating Growth scenario.	Possible minor increase in the population living within the 57 dBA contour under the Facilitating Growth scenario. Under other scenarios, population affected declines. Scale of reduction increases if technology improves. No air quality limits exceeded in any scenario. Consideration would be needed for new noise preferential routes if new runway constructed.	No direct impacts anticipated on Scheduled Ancient Monuments but the Dalmeny Estate, a historic garden and designed landscape, is likely to experience increased noise from growth at Edinburgh. No major ecology impacts. No National Scenic Areas affected.	Labour market and housing requirement addressed in Chapter 7 of the main consultation document. Impacts on green belt under all scenarios.	Under all scenarios major congestion likely. Improvements required include direct links to the M8, upgrade of A8, rail links to Edinburgh and possible remote check-in and car parking. Increase in PT modal split to between 25%-40% necessary.	Up to a 80% increase between 2000-15 for PSZ area based on RRC demand for 2030. Scottish TMA will require re-configuration to meet forecast traffic levels.
Glasgow	10.2-19.6 mppa	Up to 4100 additional direct jobs by 2030 under SEC scenario; 7855 additional jobs under the Facilitating Growth scenario.	Major increase in noise impact in all scenarios except UK-Wide Constrained case. Population within 57 dBA contour increases. If technology improves the additional population affected is much more limited. No air quality limits exceeded in any scenario.	No direct impacts anticipated on Scheduled Ancient Monuments. Ecology Whooper Swans occupy the Black Cart at Glasgow. No National Scenic Areas affected.	Labour market and housing requirement addressed in Chapter 7 of main consultation document. Impacts on green belt only likely under high growth scenarios.	Under all scenarios major congestion is likely. Improvements needed include upgrading links to and widening the M8, rail links to Glasgow and possible remote checkin and car parking. Increase in PT modal share of public transport to between 25%-40% necessary but difficult to deliver.	Up to 25% increase between 2000-15 for PSZ area based on RRC demand for 2030. Scottish TMA will require re-configuration to cater for forecast growth; careful planning of Glasgow, Prestwick interface needed.
Inverness	0.3-0.8 mppa	Up to 82 additional direct jobs by 2030 under SEC scenario; 282 additional jobs under the Facilitating Growth scenario.	No existing or future problems associated with noise or air quality.	No direct impacts anticipated on Scheduled Ancient Monuments. No major ecology impacts. No National Scenic Areas affected.	No problems with labour markets or housing requirements. Airport is not in the green belt.	Under all scenarios the existing road links to Inverness provide sufficient capacity; rail links unlikely to be needed.	Up to 30% increase between 2000-215 for PSZ area based on RRC demand for 2030. No ATC issues.
Prestwick	1.8-2.8 mppa	Up to 1318 additional direct jobs by 2030 under the SEC scenario; 1536 additional jobs under the Facilitating Growth scenario.	Significant reduction in noise impact in all scenarios as older B737-200 aircraft are replaced by new B737- 800s. No air quality limits exceeded in any scenario.	No direct impacts anticipated on Scheduled Ancient Monuments. No major ecology impacts. No National Scenic Areas affected.	No problems identified with labour markets or housing requirements. Impact on green belt only likely if additional land required for terminal development under high growth scenarios.	Under all scenarios the key existing road and rail links to Prestwick to provide sufficient capacity.	Between 2000-15 the PSZ area based on RRC demand for 2030 will decrease by 30%. Scottish TMA will require re-configuration. Interface issue with Glasgow will need careful planning.
Notes: * Increase in employment assumes a 1% in productivity per annum. A higher rate of 2.5% growth in productivity has also been modelled which reduced growth in potential direct employment. ** Increase in PSZ is the total percentage increase experienced on both runway ends combined.

[22] Draft West Edinburgh Planning Framework: The Scottish Executive, June 2002

[23] Airport Strategy for Great Britain Part 2: The Regional Airports. A Consultation Document (1976); the Department of Trade (HMSO)

[24] See Scottish Part 3 Runway study