DfT High Level Output Specification - Specimen Capacity Options
Illustrative specimen capacity enhancement options were developed by DfT, and modelled in the Network Modelling Framework (NMF), to demonstrate that the HLOS output metric requirements can be delivered within the Statement of Funds Available; as outlined in the Schedule to Appendix A of the Rail White Paper ‘Delivering a Sustainable Railway.
1. Option Generation
The NMF model was used to produce baseline estimates and forecasts of passenger demand, capacity and load factors during the HLOS period 2009-2014, for a set of key city corridors and strategic route sections. However, where empirical demand data were available in recent Network Rail RUS documents, these were substituted for NMF’s estimates.
NMF baseline outputs were used to identify where and when forecast growth would exceed existing planned rail capacity. This was corroborated with information from Route Utilisation Strategies, Regional Planning Assessments and other key rail planning reports. These strategies and assessments also provided the source of most capacity enhancement options, the outcomes of which were estimated in NMF. (The NMF baseline takes account of committed enhancement schemes and franchise commitments. Please see NMF supporting documentation for further details).
A range of options were modelled in NMF for their impact on capacity, reliability and safety. The benefits and costs of these options were considered. The most effective options were refined to some extent and appraised as a package, appraisal included supporting infrastructure investment costs where appropriate. Whilst these options are still simple and may well not represent the final outcome, they demonstrate that the sought capacity can be provided within the funds available to the DfT, and represents value for public money.
The package of specimen HLOS options use to model and confirm the output requirements were:
Long distance services (InterCity)
West Coast train lengthening: 11-car Pendolinos.
Midland Main Line journey time reduction: 8 minutes saved London–Leicester.
Transpennine: Liverpool–Manchester extra services, Liverpool–Leeds corridor; train lengthening and journey time reduction.
InterCity Express prototypes and route preparation.
London and South East Services
Thameslink Programme (fully delivered by December 2015).
Enhancement of weekday morning and evening peak services on:
Southeastern, Southern, South West Trains, First Greater Western, Chiltern, London Midlands, FCC(Great Northern), One (West Anglia), One (Great Eastern), c2c.
Regional Services
Enhancement options, all based on train lengthening, were formulated for weekday morning and evening peak services for regional cities: Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff (Welsh Assembly Government funding of rolling stock), Leeds, Leicester, Liverpool (non-Merseyrail services), Manchester, Newcastle, Nottingham, and Sheffield.
There is also an allowance for a further pool of stock for other regional areas where crowding may become an issue.
2. Long distance services (InterCity) Specimen Options
West Coast Train Lengthening
All 53 nine-car Class 390 units assumed to be lengthened to 11-cars.
Midland Main Line
Reduced journey times of between 7 and 8 minutes on the Midland Main Line for all services operating between London and Derby as a result of line speed improvements from infrastructure enhancement.
Transpennine
Provision of a fast and frequent (2tph) service between Liverpool-Leeds, with one service travelling through to Newcastle, the other to Middlesbrough.
Variations on routing via Manchester-Piccadilly or Manchester-Victoria, and variations to stopping patterns evaluated to improve journey time on the Liverpool-Leeds corridor.
Services further enhanced with train lengthening.
InterCity Express
New Intercity Express trains will be trialled in 2012, and will start to enter passenger service from 2015. The Government envisages these replacing Intercity 125s on the East Coast and Great West Main Lines, but then extending progressively to other main lines. In advance of that, Network Rail will be re-engineering the track over which the new trains will run, to provide the greater precision that lighter-weight trains need and to provide passengers with a smoother ride. This work is specified in the Railways Act 2005 Statement.
3. London and South East HLOS Specimen Options
Around 900 extra coaches in total
All London and South-East Options include the Thameslink programme, which is expected to be fully delivered by December 2015.
South Eastern – some train lengthening in peaks with infrastructure enhancement (including Thameslink) for 12-car services on London - Hayes, Sevenoaks, Dartford (via Bexleyheath and Sidcup) and Gravesend routes.
Southern Part 1 - train lengthening to maximum 8-cars in peaks on suburban services to Victoria and London Bridge via Forest Hill and via Tulse Hill. When insufficient, step up to part 2.
Southern Part 2 – infrastructure enhancement and train lengthening to 10-cars in peaks on suburban services from Croydon to Victoria via Norbury and London Bridge via Forest Hill.
South West Trains – infrastructure enhancement and train lengthening to 10-cars in peaks on all Waterloo suburban routes: Windsor & Eton Riverside, Reading, Kingston, Shepperton, Hampton Court, Weybridge, and Guildford via Claygate and via Bookham, Chessington South and Dorking.
South West Trains - train lengthening in peaks to maximum length on main line services from the Southampton, Portsmouth and Bournemouth corridors.
Great Western – Provision of additional 2tph 6-car semi-fast Reading-Paddington service, with the existing Paddington - Greenford service running between Greenford and West Ealing at enhanced frequencies. Additional suburban train lengthening, 7-cars in the peak from Reading and 6-cars from Slough.
Chiltern – train lengthening in peaks with more 6-car operation on services to Marylebone from Aylesbury, Banbury and High Wycombe.
Silverlink County (to become London Midland) - train lengthening in peaks with more 12-car operation on services to Euston from Northampton, Milton Keynes and Bletchley.
FCC Great Northern – infrastructure enhancement and train lengthening in peaks to 12-cars on Cambridge and Peterborough services to Kings Cross (already planned from Dec 2015 as part of Thameslink Phase 2 but this option causes it to happen earlier with termination at Kings Cross rather than the Thameslink through-running across London).
One West Anglia Part 1– infrastructure enhancements and train lengthening in peaks to 12-cars on Liverpool St - Stansted Airport and Cambridge services. Operate in conjunction with part 2.
One West Anglia Part 2– infrastructure enhancements and train lengthening in peaks to 9-cars on Liverpool Street – Enfield Town, Cheshunt and Chingford services. Other high peak services extended to full length trains.
One Great Eastern Part 1 – Enhanced capacity on Norwich-London services in peak achieved by train lengthening or replacement of some/all loco-hauled services with 10-car high capacity EMU’s in peaks (2x5-car). Operate in conjunction with part 2.
One Great Eastern Part 2 – seven additional peak services to/from Liverpool Street to/from a mix of Southend, Colchester Town and Chelmsford.
One C2C – infrastructure enhancements and peak train lengthening from 8-car to 12-car operation on the Tilbury Loop, and additional 12-car mainline services.
4. Regional City Specimen Options: (All peak train lengthening)
Around 300 extra carriages in total
Ten specimen capacity options were developed for English and Welsh regional cities, based on lengthening services in the morning and evening peaks, in response to forecast rising demand. These 10 cities were selected as they currently have the highest commuter rail usage outside the London-commuter belt. They were also identified in Regional Planning Assessments, Route Utilisation Strategies and other industry sources as key rail-commuter cities
The approximate numbers of people using rail for their daily commute into work, based on the 2001 ONS Census (Travel to Work) is as follows:
| Birmingham | 24,000 |
| Manchester | 17,000 |
| Leeds | 13,000 |
| Cardiff | 8,000 |
| Bristol | 4,000 |
| Liverpool | 3,000* |
| Sheffield | 3,000 |
| Nottingham | 3,000 |
| Newcastle | 3,000 |
| Leicester | 2,000 |
* A further c.12,000 use Merseyrail, where Merseyside Public Transport Executive is responsible for the provision of train capacity.
There is a clear step change between the biggest four, which are specified individually in the HLOS peak capacity specification (Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds and Cardiff) and the second tranche, (Bristol, Liverpool, Sheffield, Nottingham, Newcastle and Leicester), which were evaluated but only specified collectively as 'other urban areas'
Four Largest Cities
Birmingham
Additional peak capacity on the following corridors:
Walsall/Rugeley (Cannock)
Four Oaks (Cross City North)
Tamworth/Nuneaton
Coventry/Birmingham International
Dorridge/Stratford-upon-Avon (Snow Hill Lines)
Redditch (Cross City South)
Worcester/Stourbridge (Snow Hill Lines)
Wolverhampton
Around 40-70 carriages in total
With accompanying infrastructure changes where required to accommodate longer peak trains in stations, depots and sidings.
Cardiff
A simple option was modelled with additional peak capacity on the following corridors:
Treherbert
Aberdare
Rhymney
Barry
Extra carriage requirements not included in HLOS total – see below
The NMF is a high level model and this simple option was modelled to confirm the approximate amount of train capacity required and to evaluate the effect of this capacity on the key junction infrastructure. Transport Wales are responsible for the provision of local train services in Wales and are developing detailed plans for train service enhancements to meet forecast demand. These detailed plans currently envisage a wider range of route capacity enhancements but will place a similar pressure on key infrastructure to the simple options modelled.
Leeds
Additional peak capacity on the following corridors:
Harrogate
Ilkley (Wharfedale Line)
Shipley (Airedale Line)
Halifax (Caldervale Line)
Dewsbury (Huddersfield Line)
Wakefield Westgate
Castleford (Hallam and Pontefract Lines)
Micklefield (York and Selby Line)
Around 60-90 carriages in total
With accompanying infrastructure changes where required to accommodate longer peak trains in stations, depots and sidings.
Manchester
Additional peak capacity on the following corridors:
Rochdale/Milnrow
Stalybridge
Flowery Field
Hyde North
Reddish North
Stockport
Manchester Airport
Urmston
Eccles
Salford Crescent
Around 40-70 carriages in total
With accompanying infrastructure changes where required to accommodate longer peak trains in stations, depots and sidings.
Other Major Cities
Additional peak capacity on the following corridors:
Bristol
Yatton
Bath
Filton
Leicester
Loughborough
Nuneaton
Liverpool
Wigan
Rainhill (Chat Moss)
Warrington (CLC)
Newcastle
Morpeth
Hexham
Chester-le-Street
Durham Coast
Darlington-Saltburn
Nottingham
Chesterfield
Derby and Leicester
Grantham and Sleaford
Sheffield
Goldthorpe
Barnsley
Edale
Chesterfield
Kiveton
Doncaster
Around 50-80 carriages in total for the six cities
With accompanying infrastructure changes where required to accommodate longer peak trains in stations, depots and sidings.
In addition, a further 20-40 extra carriages have been allocated for other cities and major towns which were not part of the HLOS specimen option analysis.
