Chapter 1 - The challenge: demand for travel and under-investment CM 6234
1.1 We are travelling more. And the way we are travelling is changing. The challenges we face flow from:
- economic growth resulting in an increasing demand for travel;
- past planning policies and demographic changes driving a trend towards longer journeys;
- the growth of car travel; and
- the implications of population changes.
1.2 These challenges are compounded by historic under-investment in our transport networks.
A growing economy
1.3 The growth in travel is closely associated with people becoming better off. As we become more prosperous we choose to travel more. And in a thriving economy, businesses move more goods and people across our networks (see chart). Demand for travel will continue to grow. However, the link between traffic growth and economic growth has weakened in recent years and we want to see this trend continue.
1.4 Increased mobility brings substantial economic and social advantages, which we must support. But it can also result in increasing congestion on our roads and overcrowding on our rail network. Unless we invest in the transport system, we risk slower and more unreliable journeys which will cause frustration and damage to the economy and the environment.
Travelling further
1.5 People take advantage of good transport networks to live further away from their jobs, accepting longer commuting distances in exchange for other advantages, such as allowing their children to stay at the same school. More people remain in the same place even if they change jobs, rather than move nearer to where they work.
1.6 Past planning policies have added to the challenges presented by increasing mobility. Shopping trips used to be made predominately to the town centre. Now many trips are made to out-of-town developments that draw shoppers from a wide area. Better land-use planning is helping to reverse this trend, bringing decisions about transport to the forefront of decisions about the pattern and location of housing, services and shopping can help to create sustainable communities. Building sustainable communities takes time and it will present particular challenges for our transport network. It is essential that planning and transport policies are closely co-ordinated to produce more sustainable patterns of development and travel.
How people travel
1.7 An increasing proportion of journeys are by car. Up from 79 per cent of the total distance travelled in 1980 to 85 per cent in 2002. The shift towards car journeys has provided huge benefits for many people, opening up new opportunities. Women in particular are now more likely to have a driving licence and access to a car. Part of the reason for this increase in car use is that cars are more affordable as people become better off. Improvements in production techniques and improved fuel efficiency have contributed to a fall in the relative cost of motoring and so has brought cars within reach of a far wider range of the population.
1.8 People choose the car for many journeys because it allows them to travel direct from one place to another in comfort. But travelling by car has an impact on others. While we have some of the safest roads in the world, cars are still a more dangerous way to travel than public transport. They also have an impact on the environment and congestion. So we need to encourage those with cars to consider other forms of transport, particularly for shorter journeys.
1.9 We expect to see further growth in car ownership and use over the next 30 years. The car provides many benefits, but the challenge is to ensure that people have other options, including good quality public transport and the opportunity to walk or cycle.
Demographic changes
1.10 By 2025, the population of Great Britain is forecast to increase by 8 per cent - over 4.5 million extra people. And there have been dramatic improvements in life expectancy over the last century as a result of better health care, environmental improvements and healthier lifestyles. Someone born this year can expect to live around 30 years longer than someone born a century ago, and this trend is likely to continue over the next 20 to 30 years. This means that the proportion of older people in the country will increase. We need to plan for this to ensure our transport systems and services meet the needs of older people.
1.11 Many older people will continue to drive and we will support them in retaining safe and independent mobility through our support of mobility centres. In addition many older people are likely to become increasingly dependent on public transport and it is important that this is accessible, reliable and affordable, and that people feel safe and secure while they are using it.
Impact on the environment
1.12 Climate change is a major challenge. In the UK, transport is currently estimated to produce a quarter of total UK emissions of CO2, the main driver of climate change. Cost-effective measures to reduce emissions from transport are therefore very important if the UK is to meet its climate change objectives. The Government is committed to taking the lead in tackling climate change, and to putting the UK on a path to reducing CO2 emissions by around 60 per cent from current levels by 2050.
Emissions from road transport
1.13 Some 80 per cent of CO2 emissions from the transport sector come from road transport. Reducing carbon dioxide emissions from cars and lorries is essential. Although CO2 emissions from new cars and other vehicles have gone down over the last few decades, overall levels of emissions from road transport have stayed fairly constant as people use their cars more and choose larger, more powerful, vehicles. We have to do more. Our ultimate objective is vehicles that contribute almost no CO2 to the atmosphere. This is a long-term aim. There is much that can be done in the interim through new fuel and vehicle technologies and we will continue to look for other cost-effective ways to reduce carbon emissions.
1.14 Emissions from other forms of transport, particularly aviation, also affect climate change. The aviation industry needs to take its share of responsibility for tackling the problem. As with cars, fuel efficiency gains will contribute to reducing carbon dioxide emissions from aircraft. Over time we need to ensure that aviation meets its external costs. As a first stage, we want to include aviation in a European emissions trading scheme.
1.15 Road transport is also responsible for a significant proportion of the pollutants that affect air quality and which impact on people's health. And the impact on some 23 communities can be disproportionate. However, new vehicles are much cleaner than those of a decade or so ago. A new car today produces 20 times less emissions than an equivalent vehicle in the mid-1980s. Over the last decade emissions of the worst pollutants - oxides of nitrogen and particles - from road transport have fallen by 50 per cent despite traffic growth. Our projections suggest that this trend will continue.
Historic under-investment
1.16 We have a legacy of under-investment in transport. The core of our railway network was established well over a hundred years ago. Most of our motorways were built 30 or 40 years ago. Successive governments have devoted insufficient resources to upgrading and modernising the transport system, while travel on our road and rail networks has increased to levels that were never anticipated when they were built.
1.17 Ageing and overstressed networks cost more to maintain. In the 1990s British Rail estimated that 500 miles of track needed to be replaced each year in order to prevent any decline in the network's condition. But in the lead-up to privatisation only 300 miles of track were replaced each year. After privatisation this fell to 200 miles. To tackle this we put in place sustained investment over a long period. And last year over 800 miles of track were renewed.
1.18 These challenges are deep-rooted and daunting. But in the face of them, there is much that we have already achieved.
Major ports, airports and railways in Great Britain
This map has been produced by DfT's GIS Unit. This map is based upon Ordnance Survey material with permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of the Controller of Her Majesty's Stationery Office © Crown copyright. Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings. Department for Transport 100020237 2004 gisu040510yrp3
