Chapter 5 - Scotland

Key issues

5.1 Aviation makes a significant contribution to Scotland's economy and social welfare. Air services are essential to reach many international destinations for business and leisure purposes, and they are frequently also the most convenient means of travelling to other parts of the UK as well as the Highlands and Islands.

5.2 Throughout Scotland, therefore, many people make extensive use of air travel for domestic, as well as international journeys. This is true in the Central Belt, where air travel plays an important part in improving the economic competitiveness of Scottish businesses and attracting inward investment, as well as serving the main population centres. And it is also true in the Highlands and Islands, where air services provide essential social and economic links.

5.3 Ensuring the provision of adequate airport capacity in Scotland, whilst taking full account of environmental concerns, is therefore an important priority for the Government and the Scottish Executive. Indeed, in the face of growing demand for new routes and increased service frequency in recent years, the Executive has made improving international connectivity one of the key elements of its economic strategy for Scotland. The conclusions which follow have been drawn up in conjunction with the Scottish Executive, which also has devolved responsibility for land use planning, surface transport and a number of other matters related to air transport.

Main conclusions

5.4 As requested by a number of respondents to the consultation, ¹ we have reviewed the passenger forecasts for the main Scottish airports. The most significant result has been a substantial upward revision of the forecast for Glasgow Prestwick International Airport, reflecting its rapid recent growth, with consequential adjustments of the forecasts for the other Central Belt airports. Overall, the forecasts show demand for air travel increasing from around 20 million passengers per annum (mppa) today to close to 50mppa by 2030. A sizeable proportion of this demand is expected to arise at airports in the Central Belt. The revised forecasts suggest that demand at the two main West of Scotland airports, taken together, will be higher than indicated in the consultation document, and is likely to be broadly similar to that attracted by Edinburgh Airport. The forecasts for cargo traffic remain unchanged.

5.5 The consultation document described options for development at both Edinburgh and Glasgow airports, including additional runway capacity. Based on the analysis set out in the Scottish consultation document, the consultation responses we received and the review we have undertaken of some aspects of that analysis, our conclusion is that we should safeguard for an additional runway located at Edinburgh Airport. We recommend that appropriate measures should also be considered to ensure that the possibility of providing an additional runway at Glasgow Airport during the period covered by the White Paper is not foreclosed.

5.6 The consultation document also referred briefly to the option of a new Central Scotland Airport, but indicated that this did not appear attractive. An independent study by the David Hume Institute concluded that there was no economic case for such an option; and the great majority of respondents who commented on this proposal were also opposed to it. We therefore confirm that we do not support the development of a new Central Scotland airport.

Edinburgh Airport

5.7 In the East of Scotland passenger demand at Edinburgh Airport is forecast to be above 20mppa by 2030. It is also anticipated that Edinburgh will remain the focus of the express freight and flown mail operations serving Scotland. In the Government's view, there is therefore a good economic case for a phased development of additional runway capacity:

first, making full use of the existing main runway through building a full length parallel taxiway, together with a new control tower, additional terminal capacity and more aircraft stands. A number of these measures are being planned or will be needed soon to address peak period pressures;
second, making more use of the current crosswind runway for departing aircraft - although this will provide only a relatively small amount of additional runway capacity; and
third, constructing a new parallel runway, probably around 2020, whereupon the use of the crosswind runway would be terminated and the runway closed to all but taxiing traffic.

5.8 The new runway would require a section of the River Almond to be culverted, and associated mitigation measures would need to be undertaken to prevent flooding elsewhere within the river's floodplain, but we would not anticipate any other significant environmental impacts. Indeed, by 2030 we would expect the new runway to help reduce the number of people within the 57dBA noise contour by around 1,000 compared with 4,500 today, and also to allow a reduction in the number of night movements flying directly over Cramond.

5.9 The phased approach described above implies that the crosswind runway will be used more intensively for departing aircraft for a limited period. We propose that the crosswind runway should be closed to all but taxiing aircraft once the new runway is brought into operation. This would:

limit the additional noise that intensification of use will generate over South Gyle and Edinburgh Business Park;
remove the need for the existing runway, which has approach paths over Cramond on westerlies, to take a greater share of inbound aircraft, allowing noise contours to shrink commensurately;
bring forward the date at which the expected noise reductions would be experienced by the population of Cramond;
remove building height restrictions on Edinburgh Business Park that would otherwise have to be kept in place, thereby capping building densities and increasing development pressures on open land in West Edinburgh; and
allow a robust long-term land use planning framework for West Edinburgh to be developed, by enabling a major investment site to be created on land to the north of the A8 adjacent to the Gogar roundabout.

5.10 Analysis of potential future route development suggests that at some stage it may also be necessary to extend the existing runway to allow a wider range of aircraft to access Edinburgh and facilitate direct services to a range of long haul destinations. We believe the length of runway available could be extended to meet most requirements within the airport's existing boundaries, thereby avoiding possible impacts on the Fife Line and M9. Provision for this should be made alongside the safeguarding of the new runway.

5.11 The growth of road traffic on the strategic road network in the vicinity of the airport has the potential to become a major concern in the medium-to-long term unless action is taken. The current widening of the A8000, rail and tram links to the Airport, proposals for which are currently being developed on behalf of City of Edinburgh Council and the Scottish Executive, and improvements to the road layout serving the Airport directly (including the possibility of additional access points from the A8), should help to address potential congestion problems in the period to 2015. The rail link in particular would contribute significantly to increasing the share of passengers travelling to or from the airport by public transport. Beyond 2015 there may be a need to improve the capacity of the strategic road network as well as access from it to the airport. This will be reviewed in the context of the Scottish Executive's proposed revisions to the West Edinburgh Planning Framework and its planned review of strategic transport projects, both of which will be informed by this White Paper. All these surface access requirements will need careful environmental assessment.

5.12 Our conclusion, therefore, is that the option of a new close parallel runway, broadly as shown in the map below, and the associated development of terminal and stand capacity needed to support its development, should be safeguarded.

It must be stressed that this map is only indicative, pending detailed design work and the submission of a planning application by the operator. The map should not therefore be taken to be a formal safeguarding map.

Edinburgh - One new runway

5.13 The particular circumstances at Edinburgh will require land for terminal and apron development in advance of the construction of a new runway to be safeguarded, in addition to the steps the airport operator will need to take to safeguard the new runway. ² Scottish Ministers will therefore issue an Article 17 Direction ³ requiring the City of Edinburgh Council to refer to them any relevant planning applications within the areas of land likely to be required for the expansion of terminal, apron, taxiway and landside support facilities at Edinburgh Airport. The Direction will remain in force until the policies contained in a review of the West Edinburgh Planning Framework, to be undertaken following this White Paper, are embodied in statutory development plans.

5.14 We have considered in some detail whether these plans would allow the Royal Highland and Agricultural Society of Scotland (RHASS) site to remain in situ, possibly with modified boundaries, but still able to function effectively. This, however, would require development of the airport to be concentrated south east of the existing terminal facilities on land which is mostly in the ownership of the RHASS, rather than on land to the west. We have concluded that this would not be an appropriate long term development strategy for the airport because it will be important to:

maintain efficient use of the crosswind runway until the new close parallel runway is operational;
minimise the impact on existing passenger facilities to keep construction costs within viable limits;
minimise the number of gates and the extent of aircraft circulation dependent on the parallel taxiway serving the crosswind runway as this will reduce the potential for operational delays;
maintain active gates close to the main runway to reduce aircraft taxi time on the ground, limit fuel burn and therefore noise and emissions; and
maintain a balanced passenger facility providing equivalent walking distances for passengers using both of the main piers planned for the airport.

5.15 Our proposals would therefore require the relocation of the RHASS, by around 2013 (or earlier if that would be more suitable). The Scottish Executive will work with the Society, BAA and relevant local authorities to identify an alternative site for the Society and help facilitate their relocation.

Glasgow International Airport

5.16 In the West of Scotland, Glasgow International Airport will continue to play a very important role in meeting the needs of air travellers. Recent announcements including the commencement of a new route to Dubai by Emirates next year and Continental's commitment to use a larger aircraft on its established route to New York provide tangible evidence of this. Our central forecast of demand at Glasgow Airport in 2030 is around 15mppa, representing a broad doubling of current passenger volumes. However, it could be higher if the recent trend of more rapid growth in passenger demand on the eastern side of the Central Belt were to halt or be reversed.

5.17 The Government's view is that substantial development of terminal and airside facilities at Glasgow Airport will therefore be required, including doubling or more the present terminal capacity. We support their provision and the safeguarding of any land required outside the airport boundary to allow full use to be made of the existing runway. This would allow growth to be accommodated under even the most optimistic of forecast scenarios. However, there will be a need to balance the economic and social benefits that would undoubtedly be generated by the expansion of Glasgow Airport against the environmental impacts that would arise from it. For example, the consultation document estimated that under the highest growth forecasts around 35,000 people could be within the 57dBA noise contour in 2030 compared with 25,000 today; the level of increase under lower traffic forecasts would be much smaller. With this in mind, the airport operator, working with the relevant planning authorities, will need to ensure that every effort is made to limit any increase in the size of the 57dBA noise contour as the airport grows. The aim would be to minimise the number of people potentially affected.

5.18 Although we expect Glasgow Airport to continue to develop and increase passenger numbers, the evidence provided in the Scottish consultation document indicated that, on the basis of the analysis we have undertaken, there does not at this stage seem to be a clear case for an additional runway at Glasgow International Airport.

5.19 In part this is because charter and long-haul flights form a significant proportion of Glasgow's traffic. Charter and long-haul services tend to carry relatively large numbers of passengers per flight, which means that fewer aircraft movements are needed to handle a given annual passenger throughput. This in turn makes it easier for Glasgow to accommodate greater passenger volumes without putting pressure on the capacity of its runway. Any assessment must also recognise the recent growth of Glasgow Prestwick in the short-haul scheduled market. Indeed, given its core catchment area, Glasgow Prestwick could be viewed as already providing a second runway serving the west of the Central Belt.

5.20 For these reasons, and taking account of the principles and policies set out earlier in this White Paper, there is not a clear justification for the formal safeguarding of land for the construction of a second runway at Glasgow International Airport in the period covered by the White Paper.

5.21 However, we recognise that various factors could lead to a different balance of development across the Central Belt, particularly towards the end of the period covered by the White Paper, or beyond. For example we note that there are significant plans for development in the City of Glasgow, particularly along the Clyde, which may have an impact on the volume and type of passenger traffic at Glasgow Airport.

5.22 In addition, we have also had regard to the likelihood that there will be little pressure to develop land north of the airport, which might be needed for a second runway at Glasgow Airport (see map), because of existing land use and ecological designations. This means that the impact of protecting land for the possible addition of a close-spaced parallel runway in the longer term would probably be limited. In these circumstances, both the UK Government and the Scottish Executive recommend that Renfrewshire Council, as planning authority, consider reserving further land for long-term development of the airport, including beyond the timescale of this White Paper, in a future review of their Local Plan.

5.23 The proposed increase in terminal capacity at Glasgow Airport would need to be supported by improvements to the surface transport infrastructure serving the airport. The Scottish Executive has asked Strathclyde Passenger Transport (SPT) to work up plans for a rail link to the airport. This could form one element of a potential package of surface access improvements that may be needed to cater for increased traffic volumes associated with the airport's future growth. BAA and the relevant local authorities, in conjunction with Strathclyde Passenger Transport, are therefore invited to work up proposals for enhancing the transport corridors serving the airport for consideration as part of the Executive's review of strategic transport projects. All surface access requirements will need careful environmental assessment.

5.24 Glasgow Airport also provides an important heavy maintenance base for some airlines. As part of a wider strategy for developing the West of Scotland as a Centre of Excellence for aircraft maintenance, repair and overhaul activities, we also support provision being made for the replacement of existing hangar facilities elsewhere in the airport, as these need to be demolished to allow the development of a new eastern pier. We would encourage BAA to make provision for this in their master plan for the airport.

Glasgow Prestwick International Airport

5.25 In the timescale covered by this White Paper, Glasgow Prestwick International Airport is expected to grow rapidly. It already plays an important role in serving the market for passenger travel, especially in the West of Scotland, and the market for air freight throughout Scotland. The revised forecasts indicate that Glasgow Prestwick could be handling up to 6mppa (three times current passenger volumes), and over 200,000 tonnes of freight annually (an increase of around 400 per cent on the 40,000 tonnes handled last year), by 2030. The airport operator has been working on a master plan setting out how these levels of traffic and beyond could be accommodated.

5.26 Our appraisal shows no significant local environmental impacts associated with growth at Glasgow Prestwick. Indeed, noise impacts should reduce over time as older aircraft are replaced by quieter, more modern ones.

5.27 We therefore conclude that the terminal and support facilities at Glasgow Prestwick should be developed to accommodate the likely increase in passenger and freight traffic once current capacity of around 3mppa has been reached, prospectively within the next 5 to 10 years.

5.28 Enhanced capacity may also be needed on rail services connecting the airport to Central Glasgow, especially as a significant proportion of passengers (currently around 30 per cent) already access Glasgow Prestwick this way. The airport will benefit substantially from improvements to the M77/A77 which are already under construction.

5.29 Recent developments in the aerospace sector at Glasgow Prestwick, including the creation of an aerospace park at the airport, are welcomed. Glasgow Prestwick has an important role to play in developing the West of Scotland as a Centre of Excellence for aircraft maintenance, repair and overhaul operations.

Aberdeen Airport

5.30 Growth at Aberdeen Airport over the last five years has been relatively flat due to the decline in oil industry-related traffic. However, passenger demand is expected to rise to between 4mppa and 5mppa by 2030 from around 2.5mppa today.

5.31 Our appraisal does not indicate serious local environmental impacts associated with growth at Aberdeen Airport. By 2030 the additional population affected by noise is likely to be small and possibly could reduce over time depending on future traffic levels and the extent to which older aircraft are replaced by quieter, more modern ones.

5.32 We therefore conclude that there is a good case for the existing terminal to be developed incrementally to reflect the increase in traffic.

5.33 There may also be a need for an extension of the runway to allow a wider range of aircraft types to use the airport and to enable existing users to fly longer sectors with full payloads. We invite the airport operators to reach a firm view on their future requirements in this respect, so that the necessary land can then be safeguarded.

5.34 Surface access links to Aberdeen will be significantly improved by the plans the Scottish Executive has announced to support construction of the Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route. This will ease congestion on the A96, which provides the principal road corridor linking the airport to the city centre and its wider catchment area. The A96 is frequently congested at peak times and the new bypass should also enable more reliable bus journey times from the city centre to the airport.

Dundee Airport

5.35 Although runway length and approach constraints at Dundee Airport impose limitations on the range of aircraft that can use the airport, its London City service has been successful in attracting a local business market. We believe there will be opportunities for Dundee to attract further services of this nature in the future.

5.36 There are no physical, land use or environmental constraints that should prevent incremental development of terminal capacity to cater for demand up to 0.25mppa as and when this proves necessary. Edinburgh Airport is also relatively accessible from Tayside and offers a wide range of scheduled services, many of them at competitive frequencies. Access to Edinburgh Airport would also be improved by the proposed new rail link, which would allow rail services to be provided from Dundee direct to the airport.

5.37 RAF Leuchars is also located nearby. However, so long as this remains an operational military airfield, the UK Government and the Scottish Executive believe that commercial aviation related development there should be confined to business aviation, diversions from other airports in poor weather and niche freight operations.

Highlands and Islands

5.38 Air links greatly enhance accessibility for people living, working and doing business in the Highlands and Islands, and for tourists wishing to visit the area. Direct services reduce the need to rely on connections at other airports to reach key destinations - such as Scotland's major cities, London and key European business cities - and reduce overall journey times. They also open up the opportunity to attract visitors to the area.

5.39 The Scottish Executive and its agencies will work with the airport operator and airlines to help deliver an air transport network in the Highlands and Islands which:

is sustainable in the long term;
serves social and economic needs;
enhances internal and external business links;
develops opportunities for the promotion of inbound tourism; and
respects the unique environmental heritage of each location.

5.40 Delivery of an enhanced air network serving the Highlands and Islands may be assisted through a combination of imposing Public Service Obligations (PSOs), and the provision of financial support via a route development fund (see Chapter 12).

5.41 There will also be a need for infrastructure enhancements at some airports in the Highlands and Islands within the timescale covered by this White Paper.

5.42 At Inverness, the revised forecasts suggest the airport may have the potential to grow to beyond 1mppa, and there are no local environmental or other constraints that should prevent this. An extension of the runway may be required to cater for larger planes and longer sector lengths. Additional terminal capacity will also be required, probably before 2015. Any consequential surface access improvements are likely to be local rather than strategic in nature.

5.43 Potential enhancements at the other main Highlands and Islands airports include:

an extension to the length of the runway at Sumburgh;
runway rehabilitation and improvements to the Instrument Landing System and runway lighting (already underway) at Kirkwall; and
new runway lighting, improvements to the taxiway and development of new heliport facilities at Stornoway.

5.44 With the exception of Scatsta, these are the largest airports in the Highlands and Islands after Inverness. They are likely to see much of the future traffic growth outside Inverness and consequently have the greatest potential to attract jet operations, which will improve both the quality of service and journey times.

5.45 A programme has been developed for small-scale improvements at their other airports to 2009, and the operator will consider the possible development of Oban and Broadford airports to meet local needs in conjunction with the Scottish Executive and other stakeholders.

5.46 Airport infrastructure and air services operate under the regulatory framework set by the Civil Aviation Authority and the Department for Transport. With traffic volumes at airports in the Highlands and Islands comparatively low, the cost per passenger in maintaining infrastructure is substantially more than at major airports elsewhere in the UK. This directly contributes to the higher fares that people living in the Highlands and Islands have to pay and the high subsidy that is necessary to maintain airport infrastructure. The Civil Aviation Authority has already agreed a number of derogations for the smaller Scottish airports. The operator will continue to explore with the regulatory bodies the scope for further derogations consistent with ensuring the continued safety of operations.

¹ See Bibliography.

² In accordance with the Town and Country Planning (Safeguarded Aerodromes, Technical Sites and Military Explosive Storage Areas) (Scotland) Direction 2003.

³ The Town and Country Planning (General Development Procedure) (Scotland) Order 1992.