Chapter 2 - The strategic framework
2.1 This chapter sets out the strategic framework against which the Government has reached its conclusions on the future development of the UK's airports. It emphasises the need for a balanced approach, recognising both the costs and benefits of air travel. And it sets out a series of key principles against which our decisions have been reached, within the context of the Government's overarching commitment to sustainable development.
The growth in air travel
2.2 Economic prosperity brings with it greater demand for travel. As people get wealthier, they can afford to travel further and more often. They can also afford to pay for goods and services brought from further afield.
2.3 In the case of aviation this trend has been amplified by technological advances, cost efficiencies and strengthened competition within the industry, which have brought air travel within the reach of many more people. In an era of increasing globalisation, foreign travel - whether for pleasure or on business - is now a common experience. The increasing affordability of air travel has opened up new destinations and possibilities; it has expanded people's horizons, opportunities and expectations.
2.4 As a result, we have seen a five-fold increase in air travel over the last 30 years. Half the population of the UK now flies at least once a year. And freight traffic at UK airports has doubled since 1990.
2.5 Britain's economy is in turn increasingly dependent on air travel. One third of our visible exports, by value, now go by air. Exports of services, which depend on the ability to travel by air, make up a further eight per cent of our national income. Around 25 million foreign visitors a year contribute to a tourist industry that directly supports more than two million jobs; two thirds of these visitors come by air. Businesses coming to Britain are attracted by our good air links, and airports are a magnet for other forms of development. In an increasingly competitive global marketplace, Britain's continuing success as a place in which to invest and do business depends crucially on the strength of our international transport links.
2.6 The aviation industry itself makes an important contribution to our economy. It directly supports around 200,000 jobs, and indirectly up to three times as many. In a tough competitive environment, UK airport operators and UK-based carriers of all types are leaders in their fields, whose success brings significant economic benefits to this country. An illustration of this is the fact that one fifth of all international air passengers in the world are on flights to or from a UK airport.
2.7 Air services are important for the economic vitality of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and the English regions. They offer rapid access to other parts of the country, and essential connections to a range of European and global markets. For some communities, like those in the Scottish Highlands and Islands or Isles of Scilly, air services are quite simply a lifeline.
Future demand
2.8 All the evidence suggests that the growth in the popularity and importance of air travel is set to continue over the next 30 years. In 2003 some 200 million passengers will pass through UK airports. Our latest published forecasts suggest that by 2030 this figure could, if sufficient capacity were provided, have risen to between 400 million and 600 million - in other words, these forecasts predict that demand will be between two and three times what it is today. This would imply an average of two return trips a year for each UK resident by 2030, compared to an average of just under one return trip each today.
2.9 There are, of course, large uncertainties involved, which increase the further we look ahead. For instance, it is possible that the market for air travel might mature more rapidly than we expect, causing the rate of growth to slow more quickly than forecast. Or the cost of flying may prove to be higher than projected, perhaps, for instance, due to rising oil prices or due to the costs of tackling global warming being higher than expected. The physical constraints on airport capacity will have the effect of limiting actual traffic. And there will be some scope for high-speed rail travel to substitute for air on certain short-haul routes once our inter-urban rail improvements have been completed.
2.10 Previous forecasts have often proved conservative; during the 1990s, for example, air traffic exceeded projected levels. The forecasts we have used (which are described in more detail in Annex A) are consistent with predicted future growth in air travel globally. We believe the ranges they show provide a reasonable indication of the likely scope of underlying future demand. However, the considerable uncertainties involved in looking 30 years ahead mean it is right to proceed in a measured and balanced way.
Limitations on growth
2.11 The availability of sufficient airport capacity is an important constraint on future growth. Our starting point is that we should make the best use of existing airports before supporting the provision of additional capacity. A sustainable approach entails first making better use of existing infrastructure, wherever possible, and this has been a primary consideration in developing our conclusions.
2.12 However, even at current levels of use, many airports in the UK are becoming increasingly congested as they attempt to cope with rising passenger numbers. In some cases, the capacity of terminals and runways is at, or near, saturation point. At Heathrow - the busiest international airport in the world - the two runways are already full for virtually the whole day. The same is true at Gatwick, already the world's most intensively used single-runway airport. The pressures are less intense outside the South East, but Birmingham's runway is already close to its existing capacity during peak times and will have reached it within the next five to six years. And Edinburgh is approaching the limit of its existing terminal capacity and urgently needs further investment.
2.13 The provision of some additional airport capacity will therefore be essential if we are to accommodate, even in part, the potential growth in demand. The most significant quantifiable benefit from additional capacity would be savings in travellers' costs. Direct and wider economic benefits and costs are described in the South East consultation document. Failure to provide additional capacity would become a barrier to future economic growth and competitiveness. Airports would become more congested; air fares would rise as slots became increasingly sought-after; and much of the future growth in air travel - along with the associated economic growth - could in due course migrate elsewhere. In the case of international traffic, this would often mean to other European countries.
2.14 At the same time, we have to balance that with the environmental impacts of air travel. We have to recognise that simply building more and more capacity to meet potential demand would have major, and unacceptable, environmental impacts, and would not be a sustainable approach.
UK Aviation's forecast Carbon Dioxide Emissions 1
2.15 At the global level, the growing contribution to climate change of greenhouse gas emissions from aircraft is a cause for concern. It is a problem that can only be tackled effectively on an international basis. But the Government will play a major role in seeking to develop new solutions and stronger actions by the appropriate European and international bodies. We will use every opportunity open to us in international forums to press for new international regimes that can address this problem, and in particular to ensure that, over time, aviation meets its external costs, including through a system of emissions trading. Further details of these proposals are set out in Chapter 3.
2.16 At the local level, for all the benefits they bring, airports can have significant impacts on those living nearby. Noise, air quality, traffic generation and urbanisation are all issues that naturally concern those who live near airports, or who may be affected by proposals to increase capacity. We must find ways of reducing, limiting and mitigating these impacts. Chapter 3 again sets out our proposals in this area.
A balanced strategy
2.17 The Government does not believe that either of the extremes - failing to provide additional capacity, or encouraging growth without regard for aviation's wider impacts - is an acceptable option for the future. The Government is committed to sustainable development, with four main aims:
- social progress which recognises the needs of everyone;
- effective protection of the environment;
- prudent use of natural resources;
- maintenance of high and stable levels of economic growth and employment.
2.18 A balanced and measured approach to the future of air transport is needed, which:
- recognises the importance of air travel to our national and regional economic prosperity, and that not providing additional capacity would significantly damage the economy and national prosperity;
- reflects people's desire to travel further and more often by air, and to take advantage of the affordability of air travel and the opportunities this brings;
- seeks to reduce and minimise the impacts of airports on those who live nearby, and on the natural environment;
- ensures that, over time, aviation pays the external costs its activities impose on society at large - in other words, that the price of air travel reflects its environmental and social impacts;
- minimises the need for airport development in new locations by making best use of existing airports where possible;
- respects the rights and interests of those affected by airport development;
- provides greater certainty for all concerned in the planning of future airport capacity, but at the same time is sufficiently flexible to recognise and adapt to the uncertainties inherent in long-term planning.
2.19 The conclusions set out in the following chapters seek to reflect these principles and identify, case-by-case and region-by-region, an appropriate and fair balance between them. Examples of a wider range of impacts from our conclusions on airport development are illustrated in the Integrated Policy Appraisal annexed to this White Paper.
1 DfT forecast based on an assumption of three new runways in the South East and does not reflect any impact of economic instruments - hence it represents a slight over-estimation.
